Frost Advisory 10, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
109 PM EST WED NOV 7 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...THEN SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL THEN PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM AND LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK AS ALREADY WITHIN 3 OR SO DEGREES OF
FORECAST HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...WILL NOT RISE MUCH MORE THAN
3 DEGREES. ACTUALLY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE TEMPERATURES
START TO FALL STARTING IN MID AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT LATE
AT NIGHT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 20S INLAND AND PARTS
OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND. AGAIN...WENT WITH COOLER FWC MOS. THE CITY
AND ADJACENT AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOOKS LIKE WE
MIGHT NEED FROST ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZE WARNINGS
TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM IS STILL ACTIVE.
WILL HOLD OFF ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE AND ALLOW THE DAY
SHIFT TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS...AS SOME LOCATIONS MAY
END THEIR GROWING SEASON LATER ON EARLY THIS MORNING. I WILL AT
LEAST MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THE ZONES.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY WHILE A SW FLOW
DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL LEAD THE FORMATION OF
CIRRUS.  TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL REMAIN NEAR -6C TO -7C.
DOWN SLOPING WILL BE WEAKER THAN TODAY...AND WELL HAVE A COOLER
START AFTER TONIGHTS LOWS. CIRRUS SHOULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT
FULL INSOLATION AS WELL. ALL OF THIS CONSIDERED...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS. A BLEND OF
THE MAV AND FWC MOS WAS THEREFORE USED. THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL
BE THE SAME OR A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN TONIGHTS FOR MOST OF THE
CWA.

ON FRIDAY...A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. IT LOOKS LIKE WERE TOO FAR AWAY FROM THIS FEATURE TO HAVE
ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE 07/00Z NAM AND 06/21Z SREF APPEAR TO BE SHOWING THE
BEGINNINGS OF LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING DUE TO A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE SHOWN JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THIS
AREA. GFS SHOWING SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT DEVELOPING IT IN THE
EVENING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD ONTO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. MAV MOS LOOKED TO WARM FOR HIGH TEMPS...SO
SIDED WITH MET MOS WHICH PRODUCES HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 45 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENS SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. AT THE SAME TIME DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH
STRONG VORT MAX IS ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO IS
BEST HANDLED BY THE ECMWF. ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE. WILL
CARRY A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH
THICKNESS AND 850 TEMPERATURES LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY INLAND WITH A COLD
RAIN ALONG THE COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW COLD THE LOWER LEVELS ARE
FRIDAY NIGHT NEAR THE COAST THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION THERE AS WELL. FOR NOW KEEPING COASTAL AREAS ALL RAIN.

RATHER FLAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MIDWESTERN TROUGH DIGS WITH A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES DEVELOP FROM
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND EXTENDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MAYE BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ANY OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP AREA DRY. IF FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTH COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION SOMETIME MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCT-
BKN040-050 INSTABILITY CU WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 19-22Z...TRENDING
TO SKC-FEW040.

WNW-NW WINDS WILL TURN A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH BY 20 OR 30 DEGREES
DURING THE AFTERNOON BRINGING WIND DIRECTIONS TO NW-NNW.
MAGNITUDES OF AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT SHOULD
STAIR STEP DOWNWARD TO AROUND 10 KT BY 20-21Z...THEN SETTLE IN AT
AROUND 5-7KT IN THE CITY TERMINALS WITH LESS THAN 5 KT ELSEWHERE
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH A
LIGHT NW TO W FLOW AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRI. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY TOUCH OFF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
FRI. SUB VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM. HIGH PRES WILL RETURN
WITH VFR CONDITIONS LATE SAT THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
LOWERED SCA ON THE WESTERN SOUND AN HOUR EARLY...NOTING ONLY
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AT BEST TO 25 KT IN OBS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON
TRACK...SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST...AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PROMOTES GUSTY
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS THROUGH
FRI. A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
FRI IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO A
COASTAL STORM FRI NIGHT...PASSING SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK ON SAT. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS A RESULT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
RETURNING. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES BACK IN FROM THE NORTH ON SUN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

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