Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Nashville, TN

000 
WWUS54 KOHX 291915
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
214 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

TNC161-291930-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-070629T1930Z/
STEWART TN-
214 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT 
FOR STEWART COUNTY...

AT 210 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL STEWART COUNTY...OR ABOUT 8
MILES NORTH OF DOVER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3666 8802 3648 8802 3648 8773 3662 8771

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
259 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE POPS ACROSS
THE AREA AS A FRONT ARRIVES. EARLY THIS MORNING THE FRONT WAS
LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS REMAINED
IN PLACE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE
FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE MID STATE LATE TODAY. FRONT WILL NOT BE
REALLY IMPRESSIVE FOR CONVERGENCE AND LIFT...BUT WITH JUICY AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO DEVELOP
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATER COVERAGE SHOULD BE
OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA. WEAK FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLOW
MOVING STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (>1). WIDESPREAD OR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. BUT AS WE HAVE SEEN
THROUGH THIS WEEK...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR.

THE FRONT WILL STALL PROBABLY JUST TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY.
MODELS ALL SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME PARAMETERS SUCH AS
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY SUGGEST SATURDAY/S POPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
THAN TODAY/S. THIS COULD BE TRUE ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. WE WILL USE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR
POPS.

SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE TO BE CARRIED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
THE SOUTH AS FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS. DRIER AND COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PUSHES WELL INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...THEN
DRY PATTERN IS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO JUMP UP TO 90+ AGAIN WEST OF PLATEAU BY TUESDAY.
INCREASING LL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING DEW POINTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE NEXT FRONT AND CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ARRIVE ABOUT THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      89  70  86  67 /  60  30  30  20
CLARKSVILLE    87  68  87  63 /  60  30  30  20
CROSSVILLE     84  66  83  61 /  60  30  30  20
COLUMBIA       89  70  87  68 /  50  30  40  30
LAWRENCEBURG   90  69  88  68 /  50  30  40  30
WAVERLY        88  69  87  65 /  60  30  40  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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