Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
305 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 08Z SHOWS A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION HAS SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS
WEST TENNESSEE, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE ACTIVITY.

MODELS SHOW A SEPARATE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY
12Z JUST AHEAD OF THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE, AND THIS NEW LOW CENTER
WILL INTENSIFY THE WEATHER SYSTEM, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
WONT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG, AS TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ONLY A FEW
DEGREES BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW.

COLD FRONT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY STRETCH ALONG THE GULF COAST, WHERE
ANOTHER LOW CENTER WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY, BRINGING SOME
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, AND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SWINGING THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON SUNDAY WILL ADD A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO OTHER AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, AS WELL.

LOOK FOR A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE LOW CENTER FAR TO
THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WE WONT BE GETTING MUCH MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM -- JUST MAINLY A DROP IN TEMPERATURES.

BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE DEEPENS
ALMOST INTO A LONGWAVE AS A LOW HEIGHT CENTER DROPS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE MID
STATE. AT THE SAME TIME, A MONOLITHIC 1054 MB HIGH CENTER WILL
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES, WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMING
OVER US. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A FURTHER TEMPERATURE DROP AND
FRIGID TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      54  35  49  34 / 100  20  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    52  33  45  32 / 100  10  10  10
CROSSVILLE     55  36  49  34 / 100  50  10  20
COLUMBIA       55  36  51  34 / 100  20  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   56  36  52  35 / 100  20  10  20
WAVERLY        53  34  47  33 / 100  10  10  10
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

ROSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1123 AM CST THU DEC 27 2007

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-281730-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
1123 AM CST THU DEC 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

END/ORCHANIAN

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