Wind Advisory 10, NWS Omaha, NE

000 
WWUS73 KOAX 252350
NPWOAX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
650 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007

IAZ079-080-090-091-NEZ068-090>093-260100-
/O.EXP.KOAX.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-070326T0000Z/
MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-PAGE-OTOE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-
RICHARDSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLENWOOD...RED OAK...SIDNEY...
CLARINDA...NEBRASKA CITY...TECUMSEH...AUBURN...PAWNEE CITY...
FALLS CITY
650 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH LATER THIS
EVENING...THEREFORE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

ZAPOTOCNY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
331 AM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVG FROM NCNTRL NE TO
SCNTRL SD AT 0730Z. 88D MOSAICS INDICATE THAT ALL CONVECTION HAS
NOW PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT WELL SEE ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TODAY...AND
FEELING IS THAT IN GENERAL...IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS...IT WOULD BE
THIS MORNING YET ACROSS NERN NE AS THE COLD CORE MOVES THROUGH
THAT AREA. WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...FEEL THAT
THE CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE NORTHEAST OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON...
THEREFORE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE A VERY WARM DAY
WITH MIXING TO ABOUT 800MB. DID TWEAK TEMPS JUST A BIT TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE COLD CORE ACROSS NERN NEBRASKA...BUT STILL HAVE READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

MONDAY APPEARS TO BE EVEN WARMER WITH PLENTY OF SPRING SUNSHINE AS
H850 TEMPS WARM TO +13 TO +15. BASED ON MIXING TOMORROW...HAVE
BOOSTED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. RECORD MAX AT KOFK
STANDS AT 84 AND DOUBT WELL MAKE THAT. RECORDS AT KLNK AND KOMA
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND NOT IN JEOPARDY.

ATTENTION SHIFTS TO SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH NOW CHURNING THROUGH
THE CA BAJA REGION AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GULF
MOISTURE SHOULD STREAM NORTHWARD WHICH MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SERN NE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY GET AS FAR WEST ALONG A LINE FROM FAIRBURY TO KTKE MONDAY
NIGHT TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH CLOUDS
FROM THE CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY.

STILL AWAITING THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CWFA
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING
AND IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND MODEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN...ALTHOUGH NOT IN AGREEMENT THE ECMWF.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK INTERESTING AND SUGGEST THAT THIS
WEEKS EVENT MAY EVOLVE IN A SIMILAR FASHION TO LAST WEEKS SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT ON MARCH 21. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A SUBSTANTIAL
CAP THAT WILL HAVE TO BE BROKEN...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING
THE CAP SHOULD BEGIN TO BREACH BY 00Z THURSDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS
TO APPROACH. SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE AROUND 50 KNOTS OF SHEAR AND
SBCAPE IS AROUND 1500 J/KG. WHILE ITS STILL 4 DAYS OUT...WELL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS AND HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT THU INTO FRIDAY AS
NEW OPERATIONAL GFS NOW PUTS MUCH MORE EMPHASIS ON THE SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH...EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. H850 TEMPS ARE ALSO NEGATIVE AT THAT
POINT...IN THE -3 TO -5 RANGE. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE IS DEFINITELY NOT
AS STRONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW...AND NOT AS COLD. THE
ECMWF BY THAT TIME DOES SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN STREAM BRANCH MAY BE
CLOSING OFF AS DOES THE CANADIAN...THUS THERE APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING AGREEMENT AMONG EXTENDED MODELS. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST JUST YET...BUT WILL PASS ON TO THE DAY SHIFT FOR COMPLETE
EVALUATION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

DEWALD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1109 AM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-252300-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
1109 AM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OUTLOOK. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY LIKELY TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

DEE