Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
435 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ERUPTED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH EXISTED
JUST NORTH OF I80 AT 09Z. THE STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF 1
HAIL...AND A FEW WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
OCCURRING WITH THE STORMS. THE STORMS ARE MOVING THOUGH...AND THATS
A GOOD THING. WE DID ISSUE A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DODGE COUNTY WHERE
TRAINING OF STORMS HAS OCCURRED. DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH
BECAUSE THE STORMS ARE MOVING...BUT WOULD EXPECT FROM ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN AN ANY STORM THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA. THIS INITIAL BAND OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT
FURTHER NORTH THRU TIME THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWFA AREA THIS MORNING AS WELL.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AM THINKING THE WARMFRONT WILL SHIFT A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH AS A PSEUDO DRY SLOT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
THUS...THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASING TREND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OF THE
AREAL COVERAGE...AND THIS WILL ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION TO BEGIN.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WHERE WELL SEE
RENEWED DEVELOPMENT. THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO SWRN NE AT THIS TIME
WHILE THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARC NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WOULD EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE DRY LINE ACROSS SWRN NE...BUT THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THOSE
AREAS...GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 77. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
EVENING COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...BUT MORESO ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ELSEWHERE...WE MAY NOT
SEE MUCH OVERNIGHT AND TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD FOR THAT REASON.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...PREFERRED THE MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION OF THE GFS
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP
NORTH OF THE CWFA...BUT MAY STILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
MORNING AS THE TAIL END OF THE VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH.

THEREAFTER...DID ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SERN CWFA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AND GULF MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD. BEYOND THEN...STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
STORMS EXPECTED THEN TOO.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

DEWALD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
745 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-241100-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
745 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND ALBION TO BLAIR
AND RED OAK. HAIL UP TO AROUND ONE IN INCH DIAMETER IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

A LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR SHOULD
PROVIDE THE LIFT NEEDED FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES SATURDAY. STORMS COULD REACH
SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
THE MAIN HAZARDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH
SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. LATER OUTLOOKS WILL ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IN THAT TIMEFRAME.

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
249 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 AM     HAIL             SNYDER                  41.70N 96.79W
03/24/2007  E1.00 INCH       DODGE              NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
338 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 AM     HAIL             UEHLING                 41.73N 96.51W
03/24/2007  E1.00 INCH       DODGE              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GROUND WAS COVERED WITH HAIL AND COMPLETELY WHITE.

&&

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