Severe Thunderstorm Warning 342, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
318 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THE CHANCE FOR PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND THE CHANCE OF PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS. WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A CLOSED LOW
OVER NERN UT AND SWRN WY. A DECENT BAND OF MOISTURE STRETCHED FROM
MEXICO ACROSS TX AND UP INTO MN. SO FAR...TSTM COVERAGE HAS BEEN
MOSTLY FROM NWRN IA ACROSS MN. ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE EXTENDED
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH ACROSS LA AND UP INTO WI. THE 20Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT FROM NWRN IA INTO NWRN KS.
GUSTY WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES WERE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH SOME READINGS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

AS OF 315 PM...COVERAGE OF STORMS SEEMED TO BE ON THE INCREASE...
AND CAP WAS ERODING. LEFT HIGH POPS GOING THROUGH TONIGHT OR WENT
WITH AREAL COVERAGE WORDING...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 06Z. THINK THAT
LOWS SHOULD DROP TO NEAR 50 IN MUCH OF NERN NE...WITH LOWS RANGING
TO NEAR 60 FAR SERN CORNER OF NE.

THE CHANCE FOR PCPN SHOULD DECREASE TUESDAY MORNING...AND DID NOT
MENTION ANY PCPN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD
OVER THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. MIXING WONT BE GOOD...AND HIGHS IN
THE 60S SEEM APPROPRIATE. A GENERAL TROUGHINESS TO THE 500 MB FLOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THURSDAY...THEN A
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE ROCKIES. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY
MAJOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT HOPEFULLY WILL WORK THEMSELVES
OUT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 12Z GFS WAS FASTER IN MOVING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND IT STARTED TO DVLP
WARM ADVECTION PCPN FRIDAY. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT FAST...BUT WILL
MENTION CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST BY SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH KOFK AND WILL PUSH THROUGH KOMA AND KLNK
EARLY THIS EVENING.  SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE A KOFK...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE KOMA AND KLNK SITES THRU EARLY EVENING.  SW
WINDS AT 12 TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF THE FNT WITH NW WINDS AT 10 TO 25 KTS
BEHIND THE FNT.  VFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS MAINLY AFTER
02Z AND CONTINUE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...MILLER
AVIATION...MILLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
500 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-251100-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
500 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A FEW VERY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY BEFORE 10 PM. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO ABOUT ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE STORMS WILL OCCUR
MAINLY ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO PASS ALONG ANY REPORTS OF HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS OR RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TUESDAY.

MILLER