Severe Thunderstorm Warning 339, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
358 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...

ACTIVE WEATHER TO START THE FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT BOTH PUSH E FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  MOISTURE IS STILL GENEROUS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT EXTENSIVE DAYTIME CLOUDS HAVE
LIMITED CAPE...AND LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE POTENTIAL.  DRYING AND
STABILIZATION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...WITH
SOME LINGERING TSTMS POSSIBLE IN SRN PORTIONS OF AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME MOVING FAIRLY
RAPIDLY EAST.  HEAVY PCPN WILL FALL WITH EVE CONVECTION...BUT
FLOODING POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BY MOVEMENT AND LACK OF PREVIOUS HEAVY
RAIN IN THE AREA.  HEAVY RAIN AROUND 2 INCHES DID FALL EARLIER NEAR
FBY AND BIE...BUT THIS AREA IS LESS THREATENED WITH HEAVY RAIN
THAN FARTHER N.

DRYING IN NORTH SHOULD ALLOW CLEARING AND COOL TEMPS BY MORNING.
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SHOULD BE DECENT WED...BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED WITH LIGHT SE FLOW NEAR SFC.  LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT.

RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS WED NIGHT...AND STRONG RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION FOR TSTMS.  NAM
LIFTS PRECIP AREA TO OUR N ON THU...BUT BOTH GFS AND HPCQPF HOLD
ONTO PRECIP.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS STILL SOME
POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS...AND INTRODUCED SLGT CHANCE POPS INTO THU
DAYTIME IN EAST AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA SAT IS UNDER RIDGE ALOFT...AND WILL
PROB NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  TEMPS MAY BE COOLED A
BIT...ESPECIALLY SAT MORNING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.  GFS ENSEMBLES HOWEVER ARE SHOWING
DECENT CONSISTENCY THAT THE REMNANTS OF STRONG WEST COAST UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EJECTING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR THIS REASON...ADOPTED A FRONTAL TIMING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
HPC...AND GENERALLY RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.  EXPECT FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH SOME
COOLING...BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A STRONG COLD AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOFK...KOMA...KLNK THRU 18Z/19

MAIN CONCERN IS MVRF CONDITIONS SETTLING IN OVER ALL TAF SITES AFTER
06Z...WITH POSSIBLE IFR COND 10Z-14Z/19. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
CLEAR ALL TAF SITES AROUND 06Z WITH BKN STRATUS FILLING IN BEHIND.
OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW
VSBY TO DROP TO IFR RANGE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

POLLACK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
431 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

NEZ011-012-016>018-030-031-191145-
KNOX-CEDAR-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
431 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

IAZ043-NEZ015-032>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088-089-191145-
MONONA-THURSTON-STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-SEWARD-LANCASTER-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-
431 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME OF THOSE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY.

A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA...COMBINED WITH A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...WILL PRODUCE THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST LATE THIS EVENING...LINGERING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ045-052-053-067-068-090>093-
191145-
HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-PAGE-
WASHINGTON-DOUGLAS-SARPY-CASS-OTOE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-
RICHARDSON-
431 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS IS POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND EXIT
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA OVERNIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...BUT MORE STABLE AIR OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST IOWA...SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERITY
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE WITH THE FRONT INTO THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

DERGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
550 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     HAIL             6 SW MILFORD            40.71N 97.13W
09/18/2007  E0.75 INCH       SEWARD             NE   PUBLIC

&&

SK

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
643 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     TSTM WND GST     MAGNOLIA                41.69N 95.87W
09/18/2007  E60.00 MPH       HARRISON           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SIX TO EIGHT INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWNED.

0637 PM     TSTM WND GST     LOGAN                   41.64N 95.79W
09/18/2007  E65.00 MPH       HARRISON           IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES DOWNED IN TOWN.

&&

CHERMOK