Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
316 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...

OR

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. STLT SHOWED MCS/MCV MOVING
ACROSS THE ERN CWA AT 20Z...POSITION OF WHICH IS NOT UNLIKE
MONDAY AFTN. ATMOSPHERE HAD STABILIZED A BIT IN ITS WAKE WITH SWRN
EXTENT OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION OVER NERN 1/4 OR SO OF THE CWA.
VERY UNSTABLE AIR WAS LOCATED S OF NWD ADVANCING SURFACE WARM
FRONT WITH THE BOUNDARY APPROACHING SERN NEBR AS OF 20Z. MLCAPES
THERE WERE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG WITH CIN DECREASING. DECENT 850
MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT PER RUC INTO FAR SERN NEBR/SWRN IA THRU 03Z
SO WOULD EXPECT A RENEWED INCREASE IN CONVECTION SRN ZONES THRU
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS SOME SEVERE THREAT WITH LOW
LCLS...MODERATE LOW LVL HELICITY AND MODEST 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR...SPCLY IF BNDRY CAN ADVANCE INTO THE CWA AND CONVECTION CAN
BECOME SFC BASED. SINCE PD OF LOW LVL THETA E ADVCTN IS LIMITED
CONVECTION MAY QUICKLY SHIFT OUT OF THE CWA SO HELD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. OTHER CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE DVLPG ON SWRN FLANK
OF DEPARTING MCS AS A SECONDARY AREA OF UNSTABLE AIR WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE NRN CWA SECTIONS OF THE MO RIVER AREA. AS NRN PLAINS
WAVE...CURRENTLY TRACKING ACRS WRN ND...ALSO DEPARTS...APPEARS
TSTM CHCS DECREASE OR END OVR THE CWA AFT 06Z. WEAK NWRLY FLOW
COULD PRECLUDE FOG/ST DVLPMENT LATER...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING THE LOW LVL DRYING LATELY SO LEFT MENTION IN. WITH WEAK
FLOW AND WET GROUND ON THURSDAY WENT MORE WITH PREV FORECAST WITH
HIGHS WHICH WERE BELOW MAV.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE STILL
FORECAST TO BUILD NWWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND SRN SECTIONS OF
THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. SO IT LOOKS LIKE MAX
TEMPS COULD MAKE A RUN AT 100 SOME LOCALS BY THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY EVEN NEXT WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED BY THIS
WEEKEND BUT ATTM HANDLED BEST IN THE HWO. ALSO WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS POSSIBLY KEEPING MOST OF ANY SHORTWV ENERGY TO OUR
N...TSTM CHCS SHOULD BE DECREASING. HOWEVER...SMALL...NOCTURNAL
CHANCES DO EXIST THU NGT AND FRI NGT...MAINLY NRN ZONES AS LOW LVL
JET COULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY THAT DVLPS TO OUR N THRU W GOING
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE EXISTS SAT NGT AS WEAK FRONT DROPS
SEWD INTO NERN ZONES UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGE PER 12Z GFS/NAM AND
ECMWF. ATTM LEFT PCPN OUT OF FORECAST THU AND FRI NGTS BUT DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHC SAT NGT WITH FRONT. HIGHS COULD BE A BIT COOLER
NERN ZONES SUN AND MON AS A BIT MORE ERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
DVLPS...BUT HOT TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO RETURN EVEN THERE BY
TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z/07-18Z/08...MANY UNCERTAINTIES FOR THIS FCST. BATCH OF PCPN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TAF SITES BY 22Z...BUT SWD MOVING BNDRY
SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 23Z NEAR NEB/KS
BORDER. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS AS LATEST GUID PLACES
BEST CHANCES FM SRN IA TO NERN KS. HOWEVER...CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND MOIST BNDRY LYR AFTER 06Z ENHANCE CHANCE FOR IFR COND OR
LESS MAINLY OMA/OFK SITES BETWEEN 10Z-14Z.  OVERALL CONFIDNCE NOT
ADDING TS IN TAFS MOD...WHILE HIGH FOR FLIGHT CAT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

CHERMOK/DEE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION TO GROUPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
458 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2007

IAZ069-079-080-090-091-NEZ050>053-065>068-078-088>093-091000-
BUTLER-CASS-DOUGLAS-FREMONT IA-GAGE-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LANCASTER-
MILLS IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-
RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
458 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A
SEWARD TO OMAHA TO AVOCA IOWA LINE. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY
AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA BEGINNING
FRIDAY AS THE REGION ENTERS INTO A PROLONGED SUMMER HEAT
WAVE. DURING THIS TIME...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY EXCEED 105 FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING.

IAZ043-055-056-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-091000-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-HARRISON IA-KNOX-
MADISON-MONONA IA-PIERCE-PLATTE-SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
458 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
EAST OF A WAYNE TO COLUMBUS LINE AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA EARLY THIS
EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA BEGINNING
FRIDAY AS THE REGION ENTERS INTO A PROLONGED SUMMER HEAT
WAVE. DURING THIS TIME...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY EXCEED 105 FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

FOBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
558 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             TECUMSEH                40.37N 96.19W
08/08/2007  E0.75 INCH       JOHNSON            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
634 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SW AUBURN             40.34N 95.91W
08/08/2007  E60 MPH          NEMAHA             NE   STORM CHASER

&&

DEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
647 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     TSTM WND GST     PERU                    40.48N 95.73W
08/08/2007  E70 MPH          NEMAHA             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
648 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     AUBURN                  40.39N 95.84W
08/08/2007                   NEMAHA             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DEE

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