Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
352 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...

THE EARLY PARTS OF THE FORECAST ARE DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE DETAILS
OF FRONTAL AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND POSITIONS OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES RIDING ACROSS OUR AREA AT THE EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.  THIS
IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE SITUATION.

IT APPEARS THAT SCT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE AND EARLY TONIGHT
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF WEAKENING MCV TRACKING OUT OF NORTHEAST NEB.
AGREE WITH SPC THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST S OF FNB HAS POTENTIAL TO
ERUPT INTO SVR MULTICELLS...BUT HAS NOT SHOWN MUCH INDICATION OF
SERIOUSLY BREAKING CAP TO THIS POINT.

LATE TONIGHT EXPECT THE AREA TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NEXT
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NM INTO CO.  AREA WILL
REMAIN IN SUBTROP MOIST AXIS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
TOMORROW...BUT IT APPEARS THAT DIURNAL TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE WILL
NOT ESPECIALLY FAVOR HEAVY RAIN.  LLJ MAY HELP CONVECTION AS IT
ENTERS AREA LATE TNGT...BUT UNCERTAIN THAT IT WILL BE AS STRONG AS
DEPICTED BY NAM...WHICH HAS BEEN HAVING TROUBLE PLACING SYSTEMS.
DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS ONLY A FEW COUNTIES HAVE
RECENTLY RECEIVED ENOUGH RAIN TO BE VERY SUSCEPTABLE.
INSTEAD...THINK BEST CHC PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE DAY WED...KEEPING
CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND TEMPS DOWN FOR ONE MORE DAY.

ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO WED NIGHT...ESPCEIALLY IF ANOTHER WAVE
MATERIALIZES IN SW FLOW ALOFT.  AFTER THAT...RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING
ALOFT AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR
ORGANIZED PRECIP TO DEVELOP.  AREA WILL STILL BE IN WEAK OUTFLOW FROM
SFC HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THU.  HOWEVER...EXPECT CAPPING AND LOTS
OF SUN TO ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 90S...ALONG WITH
UNCOMFORTABLY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS DUE TO EVAPORATION INTO SHALLOW
INVERSION.

FROM THURSDAY ONWARD EXPECT THAT THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
HEAT.  AREA WILL BE UNDER HOT RIDGE ALOFT AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  AGREE WITH HPC IN KEEPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA
THRU TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHC OF RAIN EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE FAR N.
WHILE SOME EROSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS POSSIBLE BY TUE...ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST THAT THE BALANCE OF PROBABILITY IS FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE
90S AND DEW POINTS HIGH ENOUGH THAT A HEAT ADVSRY MAY BE NEEDED.
MENTION OF HEAT WAS ADDED TO THE HAZARDS OUTLOOK.
&&

.AVIATION...

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS KOFK/KOMA/KLNK TAF SITES THRU
18Z TAF PD. SEVERAL SFC BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS ACTIVITY ON SO TOUGH TO
PIN DOWN EXACT DEVELOPMENT. HAVE INCLUDED TEMP GROUPS TO COVER
HEAVIER TSTMS. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WL BE MVFR WITH IFR CONDITIONS
DURING TSTMS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

POLLACK/GRIFFIS

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