Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...

INITIAL CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT THEN CHANCE OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY AND LATE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF NEBRASKA FROM NEAR KLCG THROUGH KBVN THEN EXTENDING INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. FRONT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN
INDICATED BY 12Z NAM OR GFS AND MORE IN LINE WITH RUC. MORNING UA
ANALYSIS SHOWED MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT BOTH 850 AND 700MB.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT WITH WINDY AND
WARM CONDITONS IN ADVANCE. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS MUCH LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THAN NAM AND ALSO FASTER
WITH TIMING OF FRONT INTO KOMA BY 01Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY
POPS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NWRN PORTION OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT WITH
PRECIP ENDING IN THE SERN CORNER TUESDAY MORNING. SHORT WAVE
DROPPING INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY PULLS DOWN A SECONDARY SURGE
OF COOLER AIR BUT THIS STAYS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING BUT LOWER LEVELS PRETTY DRY SO HAVE LEFT OUT ANY POPS FOR
NOW WITH JUST SOME INCREASE IN SKY COVER FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
WARMING STARTS TO RETURN ON THURSDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION.

WARMING THEN CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. INTRODUCED
SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR MONDAY BUT TIMING UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...

TIMING OF WIND SHIFT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL BE OF MOST CONCERN FOR AVIATORS. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING OVER 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH
SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WIND AT KOFK NEAR 00Z...AND KLNK/KOMA AREAS
AROUND 04Z. MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH LINGERING
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR SHOWERS AND CIGS FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS AFTER HEAVIEST
RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 KTS SHOULD BE
THE RULE AFTER 12Z-14Z TUESDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

FOBERT/DERGAN

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