River Flood Warning 63, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
229 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH FRIDAY ARE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

CONVECTION CONTINUED TO FIRE IN THE NORTHERN CWA INTO THE
AFTERNOON AFTER A SOMEWHAT BUSY EARLY MORNING OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. THIS CONVECTION IN
THE NORTH HAS PUSHED A COLD POOL SOUTH INTO THE OMAHA METRO AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FIRING ALONG
THAT. SOUTH OF THIS OUTFLOW...TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING INTO THE
LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINT NEAR 70. LATEST SPC MESOSCALE RUC DATA
SHOWED MIXED LAYER CAPES TOPPING 3000 J/KG IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
WITH WEAKENING CAP. SATELLITE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD INCREASING IN
FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. WILL WATCH THIS AREA
FOR SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. IF
STORMS DO FIRE...AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WOULD SUGGEST LARGE HAIL
THREAT. HOWEVER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS ONLY MODEST AROUND 25 TO
30 KTS...PULSE SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY MODE. BUT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD AND EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT LEAD TO POCKETS
OF SUFFICIENT HELICITY TO PRODUCE A BRIEF SPIN UP UNDER A
DEVELOPING UPDRAFT.

TO THE NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO THE
EVENING. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL JET
ACCELERATES AFTER DARK. THIS AREA HAS RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING
AROUND 2 INCHES. ALREADY ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE THAT.
QUESTION WILL BE IF ONE IS NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...LEAVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES INCREASING THURSDAY NIGHT AS
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE INDUCES ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AGAIN HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL A MINOR
THREAT.

FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MAKE A SOUTHERLY PUSH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
LEAVING THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION. HAVE KEPT CHANCES GOING AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA FOR NOW...BUT THAT MAY BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC. THEN
LINGERING PRECIP IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE END OF
THE RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME
NEXT WEEK...MOST LIKELY TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPS INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE AFFECTED GREATLY BY
CLOUDS/PRECIP. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE HOLDING IN THE MID 60S
UNDER THE CLOUDS...AND A SIMILAR REGIME IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
MAYBE EVEN FRIDAY. IN FACT ETA MOS GUIDANCE HAS A HIGH OF 71 FOR
OMAHA ON FRIDAY. HAVE NOT GONE THIS COOL...BUT HIGHS IN THE 70S
LOOK LIKELY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THURSDAY AND MUCH OF THE CWA ON
FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL ALSO SPREAD SOUTH BEHIND THE
FRONT...PUSHING DEW POINTS AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER 60S IF NOT 50S.
MORNING LOWS COULD MIMIC THESE DEW POINT TEMPS BY SATURDAY MORNING
IF WE CAN GET RID OF THE CLOUD COVER. WARMING TREND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD PUT TEMPS
BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES...COOLER
EASTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMBINED WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL. WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY IFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD IN KOFK AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AT KLNK AND KOMA BEFORE 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056.

&&

DERGAN/FOBERT

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