Flood Watch 2, NWS Omaha, NE

Fremont County, IA, Harrison County, IA, Mills County, IA, Monona County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, Page County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Burt County, NE, Butler County, NE, Cass County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Gage County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Richardson County, NE, Saline County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Seward County, NE, Washington County, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
327 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...12Z UPPR AIR ANLYS INDCD DEEP URR TROF FM THEN NRN
ROCKIES SWD INTO AZ/NM. A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE TROFS WERE ROTATING
AROUND THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPR LVL TROF...WITH THE WAVE FROM
YESTERDAY OVR NE WY AT 12Z AND THE NEXT OVR WRN NM ASSOCIATED WITH
A 60 M H6 HEIGHT FALL. AT H85...MOISTURE HAD BEEN PUSHED EWD BY
THE PASSAGE OF TROF ASSOCIATED WITH NRN PLAINS H85 CYCLONE. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTD TO OUR S WITH PWATS ABOVE 1 INCH AND GENERALLY 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL. 20Z SFC ALYS INDCD 1002 MB LO OVR CNTRL ND WITH
OCCLUDED FNT SWD THRU CNTRL NEB TO NEXT LO OVR SRN KS.

FORECAST...DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A DEEP
UPPR TROF TO OUR WEST. LO LVL WINDS ON AREA PROFILERS INDCS
MOISTURE WHICH HAS BEEN PUSHED E OF THE FA BY THE TROF PASSAGE IS
STARTING TO COME BACK AS THESE LO LVL WINDS BACK. THIS CAN ALSO BE
SEEN WITH THE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVR KS ATTM. THUS
RAIN TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET AS A LO LVL JET OF 45 KTS
DVLPNGS FM NRN OK INTO NRN KS. THUS WE EXPECT THIS CONVECTION OVR
KS TO CONT TO LIFT TO THE NWD THRU THE EVENING HOURS...AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 18Z KOAX SOUNDING INDCS WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT A MOISTENING PROFILE. THUS SVR WX THREAT LOOKS
LO THIS EVNG AS ATMOSPHERE CONTS TO BE WORKED-OVR GOOD FM LAST
NIGHTS STORMS. SOME INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY IS LIKELY BY LATE
EVNG AS BETTER ELEVATED INSTABILITY WORKS NWD INTO SE NEB/SW IA.
THIS IS WHEN WE EXPECT PRECIP RATES TO PICK UP. LO LVL JET IS
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPR LVL FLOW...AND THUS CORFIDI VECTORS
ARE VERY LIGHT AND EVEN INDC SOME BACK BUILDING OVERNIGHT FM WEST
CENTRAL IOWA INTO SE NEB. THUS TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. WL CONT WITH THE FLOOD WATCH ACRS THE FA
WITH THIS TREAT AND THE ON-GOING FLOODING. WLD EXPECT SOME
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE MRNG HOURS ON AS LO
LVL JET VEERS AND WAA DECREASES. THE NEXT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LESS CERTAIN AS UPPR LVL LO OVR NM STARTS TO EJECT NEWD
INTO THE PLAINS. WITH THE H85 BOUNDARY IN THE SRN FA...THIS SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY BY MON NIGHT AGAIN MAINLY
OVR THE SRN FA. WITH THIS UPPR LVL LO SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA THRU
THURS...WLD EXPECT THE CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONT THRU THEN. GENERALLY PREFER THE EC AND CANADIAN WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WAS ALSO PREFERRED BY THE HPC.
THUS HAVE INSERTED SOME POPS FOR THE WED INTO THURS TIME FRAME.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS/INTENSITY LOOK TO DROP OFF AS THE DYNAMICS
WEAKEN WITH TIME...AND THUS FLOODING CONCERNS FM ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL LOOK TO BE LESS AFTER TONIGHTS RAINFALL. FINALLY LOOKS
LIKE WE START TO DRY OUT TOWARD FRI AND UPPR LVL LO DROPS TO THE
SE AND UPPR LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVER-HEAD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

BOUSTEAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
823 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-071122-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
823 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LINCOLN TO OMAHA TO OAKLAND
IOWA MAY SEE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY AT TIMES.
THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

FLOODING WAS OCCURRING ON SEVERAL STREAMS AND RIVERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

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