Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Missoula, MT

000 
WWUS85 KMSO 212033
RFWMSO

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
233 PM MDT SAT JUL 21 2007

MTZ110-111-220300-
/O.CON.KMSO.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-070722T0300Z/
DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD-EAST BEAVERHEAD-
233 PM MDT SAT JUL 21 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DEERLODGE/WEST
BEAVERHEAD...EAST BEAVERHEAD (ZONES 110-111)...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS ONCE AGAIN ALLOWED GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO MIX TO THE SURFACE OVER THE BEAVERHEAD-DEERLODGE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RANGING
FROM 7 TO 14 PERCENT WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
337 AM MDT SAT JUL 21 2007

.DISCUSSION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC CONTINUES
TO GET CAUGHT UP IN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. RADAR CONTINUES TO
SHOW RETURNS...HOWEVER CAN NOT GET ANY MORE THAN A TRACE REPORT
FOR GROUND VERIFICATION. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. STILL HAVE A
THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH ALONG WITH VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS THANKS TO GOOD HEATING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED
A FEW DEGREES CENTRAL AND NORTH WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING AS THE UPPER
RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
HEATING SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE THERMAL
BOUNDARY ADVANCES BACK TO THE NORTH. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA...WESTERN MONTANA WILL BE MORE INFLUENCED BY MONSOON
MOISTURE AND ENERGY. AT THIS TIME...SOUTHWEST MONTANA LOOKS TO BE
MAIN AREA AFFECTED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEN THE BULK OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS CANADA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
CAUSING THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN. THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE APPEARS TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY WHICH COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND LEMHI COUNTY SEEING THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
THIS PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A SLIGHT COOLING OF
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO
NORTHWEST MONTANA TODAY CAUSING ISOLATED SHOWERS. A DESTABILIZING
ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND LEMHI COUNTY. LOWERED
CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE
CONVECTION. PLEASE SEE APPROPRIATE TAFS AND TWEBS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY DRY AIR REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WITH
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...BREEZY WINDS ARE ONCE AGAIN
ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEREFORE A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. PLEASE SEE
GTFRFWMSO (RED FLAG WARNING) FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD-EAST BEAVERHEAD.

ID...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM....SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
220 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2007

IDZ006-009-010-MTZ005>007-043-211100-
SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY-
EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY-MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS-
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION-
POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION-
220 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2007 /120 PM PDT FRI JUL 20 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO AND WEST CENTRAL MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EXIST IN SOME
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS BREEZY WINDS INTERRACT WITH
LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITINS WILL REDEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AGAIN AS BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS INTERRACT WITH
LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.