Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Missoula, MT

000 
WWUS85 KMSO 201938
RFWMSO

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
138 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2007

MTZ110-111-210300-
/O.CON.KMSO.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-070721T0300Z/
DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD-EAST BEAVERHEAD-
138 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DEERLODGE/WEST
BEAVERHEAD...EAST BEAVERHEAD  (ZONES 110-111)...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS ALLOWED GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE OVER THE BEAVERHEAD-DEERLODGE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RANGING FROM 7 TO 14 PERCENT
WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

000 
WWUS85 KMSO 210252
RFWMSO

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
852 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2007

MTZ110-111-210400-
/O.EXP.KMSO.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-070721T0300Z/
DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD-EAST BEAVERHEAD-
852 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD...EAST BEAVERHEAD...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING. 

WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING...ENDING THE PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
405 AM MDT FRI JUL 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...STILL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST
WITH HUMIDITIES FLIRTING WITH 100 PERCENT. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED
SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG TO THE NORTHWEST VALLEYS. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE THERMAL BOUNDARY REBOUNDING OVER
THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST WILL RETURN MUCH OF THE REGION TO ABOVE 90
DEGREES AGAIN TODAY. THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL SET OFF SOME LATE DAY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MISSOULA OVER TO BUTTE. ENERGY FROM
THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND SOME EVENING SHOWERS
TO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF MONTANA. A BIT MORE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THAN HAS BEEN SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD
SIDE...CONTINUING THAT STREAK. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY BY INHIBITING THE
THERMAL BOUNDARY FROM BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED IN THE FORECAST. THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND SOME DRIER AIR
BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...OVERALL PATTERN OF SOUTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
STAY POSITIONED OFF TO OUR EAST. THE CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES
COUPLED WITH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND WAVES OF ENERGY PUSHING
THROUGH THE RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOONS WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY FOR
AREAS IN WEST CENTRAL MONTANA AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS ARE STARTING TO HINT
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION...THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN AND THE INTER
MOUNTAIN WEST WILL MOVE INTO A COOLER ZONAL FLOW BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MODELS
IS NOT HIGH THIS FAR OUT SO HAVE ONLY TRENDED FORECAST SLIGHTLY TO
A MORE COOLER AND WETTER FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AND OBSCURE
MOUNTAINS AND PASSES EARLY THIS MORNING AT KGPI AND VICINITY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TODAY AS
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED BUT
PILOTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF WIND GUSTS AND TURBULENCE RESULTING FROM
STORM OUTFLOW..SEE APPROPRIATE TAFS AND TWEBS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY DRY AIR AND BREEZY WINDS IN SOUTHWEST
MONTANA WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS TODAY.
THEREFORE A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST MONTANA
FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT. PLEASE SEE GTFRFWMSO FOR DETAILS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THURSDAYS HIGH OF 87 IN MISSOULA BROKE THE LONG STREAK OF
90 DEGREES OR ABOVE FOR THE MONTH OF JULY (18 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).
18 CONSECUTIVE DAYS TIES THE RECORD FOR THE MISSOULA AIRPORT SET
BACK IN 1960. IT DOES NOT BREAK THE ALL TIME RECORD OF 20
CONSECUTIVE DAYS SET BACK IN 1904.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD-EAST BEAVERHEAD.

ID...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM....FOSTER
AVIATION...FOSTER