Red Flag Warning 25, NWS Missoula, MT

000 
WWUS85 KMSO 170130
RFWMSO

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
730 PM MDT SUN SEP 16 2007

MTZ110-111-170230-
/O.CAN.KMSO.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-070917T0300Z/
DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD-EAST BEAVERHEAD-
730 PM MDT SUN SEP 16 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE DEERLODGE/WEST
BEAVERHEAD...EAST BEAVERHEAD...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

WINDS HAVE WEAKENED ENOUGH THAT HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS NO LONGER EXIST.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
218 PM MDT SUN SEP 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND COUPLED
WITH SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN HAS TRIGGERED SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE DIVIDE
TONIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT TO
RECEIVE UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL COOL OFF TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS. THE FRONT WILL EXIT MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE TROUGH
WILL STILL REMAIN OVERHEAD AND KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND MOVE OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. UNDER THE MAIN TROUGH...THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL TUESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DIG SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
TREND TOWARD THE SOUTH...MOVING OVER CENTRAL IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. HOWEVER...UNDER THIS GENERALLY TROUGHY PATTERN...ALL
AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL POTENTIAL SHOWERS. NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER IN THE POSITION OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW
SYSTEM NEAR CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WELL AS THEIR
RESPECTIVE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW INLAND NEXT WEEKEND. THIS LOW
FEATURE COULD PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN OUR FORECAST DURING THE
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION SUFFERS DUE TO MODEL
DISCREPANCIES.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH CARVE OUT A TROUGH IN
THE GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE NORTH OF MISSOULA.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...MODELS HAVING A PARTICULARLY HARD TIME DETERMINING
WHAT TO DO WITH A LOW SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEXT WEEKEND.
LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF EJECTING THE LOW SYSTEM INLAND
THANKS TO A KICKER WAVE APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION DEPEND GREATLY ON WHERE THIS LOW TRACKS. IF THE
TRACK IS TOO FAR SOUTH...WE ARE LEFT HIGH AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER
MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE INBOUND FRONT. THE BREEZY SURFACE WINDS WILL
PEAK BY EARLY EVENING THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH IN THE VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT. SMOKE WILL BE LESS OF AN ISSUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND
THE APPROACHING FRONT....SEE APPROPRIATE TAFS AND TWEBS.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FOSTER/WHITMORE
LONG TERM....MSJ
AVIATION...WHITMORE