Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Missoula, MT

000 
WWUS85 KMSO 022037
RFWMSO

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
237 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

MTZ110-111-030300-
/O.CON.KMSO.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070703T0300Z/
DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD-EAST BEAVERHEAD-
237 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS INCREASING INSTABILITY ALLOWS MID LEVEL WINDS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL AGAIN DIP INTO THE TEENS
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE INSTABILITY AND DRY MID LEVELS WILL CAUSE THE HAINES INDEX TO
RISE TO A 6 DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FIRE POTENTIAL.

$$

000 
WWUS85 KMSO 030301
RFWMSO

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
901 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

MTZ110-111-030415-
/O.EXP.KMSO.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070703T0300Z/
DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD-EAST BEAVERHEAD-
901 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITES ARE INCREASING WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE ALSO DECREASING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TO
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA LEVELS. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
320 AM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

...INCREASINGLY HOT TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AIR MASS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. BIGGEST WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE LATE IN THE
DAY...AND THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE MIXED UP TO AROUND 500 MB (19K
FT ABOVE SEA LEVEL). THIS WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO
MIX DOWN. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER WILL BE
ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL THREAT OF
CONVECTION...BUT MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED BELOW 20K FT.

THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE ENHANCING THIS INSTABILITY WILL ALSO HAVE
AN IMPACT OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHWEST MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THURSDAY PRODUCING AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AIR MASS. THE RIDGE WEAKENS VERY SLIGHTLY
FRIDAY...BUT THIS WILL ONLY HELP TO DIMINISH THE STABILITY OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB FURTHER. THE RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
WARM...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS THOSE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED HIGH
BASED CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT
WILL FAVOR NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS MORNING...AND AREAS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED SURFACE WINDS AND
LOCAL DOWNDRAFTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT TO AVIATION. SEE
APPROPRIATE TAFS AND TWEBS.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD-EAST BEAVERHEAD.

ID...NONE.
&&

WHITMORE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
248 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2007

IDZ005>010-MTZ001>007-043-021000-
NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-
OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION-LOWER HELLS CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION-
WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY-EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY-KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION-
WEST GLACIER REGION-FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS-
LOWER CLARK FORK REGION-MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS-
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION-
POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION-
248 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2007 /148 PM PDT SUN JUL 1 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO...NORTHWEST MONTANA AND WEST CENTRAL MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PASS OVER WESTERN MONTANA MONDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER MIXING OF MID LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AND RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS MONDAY. WINDS COUPLED WITH THE DRYING
ACROSS THE AREA THE PAST WEEK AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK WILL BE
PRESENT MONDAY.

A VERY HOT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. FIRE CONCERNS WILL EXIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.