Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Missoula, MT

000 
WGUS65 KMSO 221653
FFAMSO

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1053 AM MDT SAT SEP 22 2007

IDC049-059-MTC023-039-077-081-230200-
/O.CON.KMSO.FF.A.0002.070923T0000Z-070923T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
IDAHO-LEMHI-DEER LODGE-GRANITE-POWELL-RAVALLI-
1053 AM MDT SAT SEP 22 2007 /953 AM PDT SAT SEP 22 2007/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MDT /5 PM PDT/
THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WEST CENTRAL MONTANA...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO...
  IDAHO AND LEMHI. IN WEST CENTRAL MONTANA...DEER LODGE...
  GRANITE...POWELL AND RAVALLI.

* FROM 6 PM MDT /5 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BEGIN IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 
  EASTERN IDAHO AND WESTERN LEMHI COUNTIES OF NORTH-CENTRAL 
  IDAHO AS ...WELL AS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA BY THIS 
  EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO 
  DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY. ANYWHERE FROM 
  A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. 

* FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE STEEP TERRAIN OF 
  SEVERELY BURNED AREAS FROM THIS PAST SEASON OF WILDFIRES WHERE 
  SOILS ARE NO LONGER PROTECTED BY VEGETATION RESULTING IN 
  DEBRIS FLOWS. 

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

$$

000 
WGUS65 KMSO 230049
FFAMSO

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
648 PM MDT SAT SEP 22 2007

IDC049-059-MTC023-039-077-081-231100-
/O.CON.KMSO.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-070923T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
IDAHO-LEMHI-DEER LODGE-GRANITE-POWELL-RAVALLI-
648 PM MDT SAT SEP 22 2007 /548 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2007/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT /5 AM PDT/
SUNDAY FOR THE AREAS SEVERELY BURNED BY THE 2007 WILDFIRES...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WEST CENTRAL MONTANA...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO...
  IDAHO AND LEMHI. IN WEST CENTRAL MONTANA...DEER LODGE...
  GRANITE...POWELL AND RAVALLI.

* UNTIL 6 AM MDT /5 AM PDT/ SUNDAY

* MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BEGIN IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 
  EASTERN IDAHO AND WESTERN LEMHI COUNTIES OF NORTH-CENTRAL 
  IDAHO AS WELL ...AS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA BY THIS 
  EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO 
  DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY. ANYWHERE FROM 
  A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. 

* FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE STEEP TERRAIN OF 
  SEVERELY BURNED AREAS FROM THIS PAST SEASON OF WILDFIRES WHERE 
  SOILS ARE NO LONGER PROTECTED BY VEGETATION RESULTING IN 
  DEBRIS FLOWS. 

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

$$

000 
WGUS65 KMSO 230834
FFAMSO

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
234 AM MDT SUN SEP 23 2007

IDC049-059-MTC023-039-077-081-231800-
/O.EXT.KMSO.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-070923T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
IDAHO-LEMHI-DEER LODGE-GRANITE-POWELL-RAVALLI-
234 AM MDT SUN SEP 23 2007 /134 AM PDT SUN SEP 23 2007/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT /11 AM PDT/
TODAY FOR THE AREAS SEVERELY BURNED BY THE 2007 WILDFIRES...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WEST CENTRAL MONTANA...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO...
  IDAHO AND LEMHI. IN WEST CENTRAL MONTANA...DEER LODGE...
  GRANITE...POWELL AND RAVALLI.

* UNTIL NOON MDT /11 AM PDT/ TODAY

* MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN IDAHO
  AND WESTERN LEMHI COUNTIES OF NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO AS WELL AS...
  PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-DAY
  TODAY. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND AREAL
  COVERAGE LATER TODAY. ANYWHERE FROM 0.35 TO 0.60 INCHES OF
  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

* FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE STEEP TERRAIN OF
  SEVERELY BURNED AREAS FROM THIS PAST SEASON OF WILDFIRES WHERE
  SOILS ARE NO LONGER PROTECTED BY VEGETATION. IF ONE OF THE
  HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS MOVES OVER THESE BURNED AREAS IT MAY CAUSE
  DEBRIS AND MUD FLOWS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

$$

000 
WGUS65 KMSO 231342
FFAMSO

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
742 AM MDT SUN SEP 23 2007

IDC049-059-MTC023-039-077-081-231445-
/O.CAN.KMSO.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-070923T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
IDAHO-LEMHI-DEER LODGE-GRANITE-POWELL-RAVALLI-
742 AM MDT SUN SEP 23 2007 /642 AM PDT SUN SEP 23 2007/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND
WEST CENTRAL MONTANA HAS BEEN CANCELED. HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL
HAS NOW MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE BURN AREAS OF 2007 HAS BEEN CANCELED.


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
909 PM MDT FRI SEP 21 2007

.DISCUSSION...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WASHINGTON THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FAR NORTHWEST
MONTANA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS PARTICULAR WEATHER SYSTEM RIGHT
NOW...BUT THAT WILL CHANGE AS AN UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA MOVES
NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY. THE CALIFORNIA LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING COPIOUS
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT FOR SOME HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND INTENSITY WILL
NEED TO BE EVALUATED FOR POSSIBLE LOCALIZED MUDSLIDE/FLOODING
POTENTIAL IN THE BURN AREAS OF CENTRAL IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY WINDS ABOVE RIDGE TOPS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA.
PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL MOVE UP FROM
SOUTHERN IDAHO INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
IS PULLED NORTHWARD WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH. SEE APPROPRIATE
TAFS AND TWEBS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM MDT FRI SEP 21 2007/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MERGING OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA TROUGH WITH THE CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW APPEARS ON TRACK FOR LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE MAIN MOISTURE FEED FROM THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM MAY BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. AS
SUCH...WE HAVE CUT BACK PRECIPITATION SOME SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
ENERGY AND MOISTURE OF THE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD COME
TOGETHER QUITE WELL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS
MISSOULA AND SEELEY LAKE. SOME AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BITTERROOTS TO SAPPHIRES MAY SEE MORE THAN ONE INCH OF
PRECIPITATION. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE SEVERE BURN AREAS FOR
DEBRIS FLOWS. HOWEVER...TYPICAL PRECIPITATION INTENSITIES FOR
DEBRIS FLOWS ARE NOT OBSERVED IN LARGER SCALE PRECIPITATION EVENTS
LIKE THIS.

THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHETHER WE NEED A WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY WHEN THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...BUT
THE FORECAST INTENSITY AND ACCUMULATION DO NOT WARRANT A HEADLINE
AT THIS TIME.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD...LONG WAVE (CONTINENTAL IN LENGTH) TROUGH.
THE MAIN CHALLENGES WITH NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF WEAK DISTURBANCES CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW

CLIMATE...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX OCCURS THIS SUNDAY...SEPTEMBER
23RD AT 9:51AM MDT MARKING THE CALENDAR START OF FALL.

AVIATION...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH NORTHWEST MONTANA
LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. INCREASING
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA LATE
SATURDAY AS SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.  SEE APPROPRIATE
TAFS AND TWEBS.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SIGLER
LONG TERM....DICKERSON
AVIATION...DE ROSA