Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
245 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA AGAIN TODAY AS EXPECTED...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE SLIDING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING AND THEN END AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE COOLS.  UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.  MAY STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
DESPITE MID LEVEL WARMING FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION EVEN IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH ONGOING FORECAST AND
KEEP POPS BELOW 15 IN THE VALLEY AND JUST CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. MAV TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK REASONABLE...SO ONLY
SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MAIN ISSUE FOR THE LONG TERM IS
TIMING AND EXTENT OF MID-WEEK SYSTEM. AFTER MAINLY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY WORK WEEK...GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT BY LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO BE PROFOUND DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLE SUITES ON THE
AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS EVENT. THE GFS SOLUTION OF PUSHING THE
SURFACE FRONT THROUGH AND WELL SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SEEMS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT GFS HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS PROGRESSION FOR SEVERAL RUNS. BASED ON
THIS UNCERTAINTY...AM INCLINED TO NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES FOR
CONSISTENCY SAKE UNTIL THE EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT BECOMES MORE
CLEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  89  65  93  66 /  20  10   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  87  60  90  65 /  20  10   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       61  89  59  93  64 /  20  10   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              56  83  55  88  58 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

LDW/LCM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1040 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-161445-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
1040 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007 /940 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUDNERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
GIVING A CHANCE OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS...WITH SOME
LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
155 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

TNZ012>014-035>037-151900-
ANDERSON-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-MORGAN-SCOTT-UNION-
155 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
THROUGH 3 PM...

AT 153 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU...MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH. WINDS UP TO BETWEEN 40 AND
50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN CLAIBORNE...CAMPBELL...MORGAN...NORTHERN ANDERSON... SCOTT
AND UNION COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE
ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

DMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
218 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

TNZ081-098-151900-
MARION-SEQUATCHIE-
118 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MARION AND SEQUATCHIE COUNTIES
THROUGH 2 PM CDT...

AT 114 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF WHITWELL....MOVING SOUTH AT 5
MPH. WINDS UP TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN MARION AND SEQUATCHIE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

DMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
320 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             ROCKWOOD                35.87N 84.68W
06/15/2007  E0.75 INCH       ROANE              TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL AT ROCKWOOD. REPORTED BY SPOTTER

&&

GRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
344 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             CLAIRFIELD              36.55N 83.95W
06/15/2007  E0.75 INCH       CLAIBORNE          TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TAZEWELL CITY POLICE REPORTED PENNY SIZE HAIL IN WESTERN
            CLAIBORME COUNTY.

0325 PM     HAIL             SPRING CITY             35.69N 84.86W
06/15/2007  E1.00 INCH       RHEA               TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN SPRING CITY. REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

0315 PM     HAIL             2 S WHITE OAK           36.50N 84.04W
06/15/2007  E4.25 INCH       CAMPBELL           TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL NEAR WHITE OAK. REPORTED BY DISPATCH.

&&

GRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
403 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WHITWELL                35.20N 85.52W
06/15/2007                   MARION             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            1 TREE DOWN IN WHITWELL. REPORTED BY CITY POLICE.

&&

GRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
423 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             SPRING CITY             35.69N 84.86W
06/15/2007  E1.00 INCH       RHEA               TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR SPRING CITY. BROKE THE WINDSHIELD
            ON A POLICE CRUISER. REPORTED BY DISPATCH.

&&

GRC