Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
314 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT...CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA.  END RESULT WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING
THICKNESS AND HEIGHTS WITH HOT CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
WEEKEND PRODUCING AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 95 AND 105 DEGREES.

TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME MOISTURE WILL COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANGE
SINCE YESTERDAYS LONG RANGE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES SLOWLY EAST TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
MONDAY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME RETROGRADING TO THE WEST POSSIBLE FRIDAY. A
WEAK FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY MOVING EAST WILL SEND AN IMPULSE
SOUTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AND MAY ONLY OCCUR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP 20 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW BUT
LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO TAKE POPS OUT OF THE VALLEYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH PERSISTENCE THE
BEST FORECAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  71  96  71  93  73 /  20  10  10  20  20
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN    67  93  69  92  73 /  20  10  10  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN            65  94  70  92  72 /  20  10  10  20  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN   63  91  65  91  67 /  20  10  10  30  20
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DH/TD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
900 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

UPDATED TO INCLUDE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-040945-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
900 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007 /800 AM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE VERY
UNSTABLE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS.  SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS WINDS...HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE...AND LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

DH