Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
234 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...LACK OF SURFACE FEATURE TODAY
HAS CONVECTION FIRING MORE RANDOMLY...ALTHO SOME ORGANIZED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN NC AT THIS TIME.
MOVEMENT IS EAST OR NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...MOVING AWAY FROM TRI
AND TYS FOR NOW...WITH SLIGHT THREAT OF TSRA FOR CHA OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY PULSE TO BRIEFLY SEVERE LEVELS WITH SMALL
HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. DUE TO RANDOM
LOOK DECIDED TO LOWER POPS A BIT FOR REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS (BELOW 50 PERCENT COVERAGE). CLOSE TO MOS BLEND FOR
MIN TEMPS...AND ADDED SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.

FOR FRIDAY...GENERALLY EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH ONCE AGAIN A
RANDOM COVERAGE. LATEST MOS POPS WERE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS GRIDS...
BUT I KEPT POPS A BIT HIGHER IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS.
GFS MAX TEMPS WERE NOT FAR OFF THE BLEND OF MOS...AND CLOSELY
FOLLOWED.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED. MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORT-WAVE DIVING INTO THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE FRIDAY WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THICKNESS AND CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST OHIO VALLEY
MCS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE UPPED
POPS FOR THIS FEATURE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED.  WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY AND ..SO HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING.

FOR SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONLY SLOWLY EAST TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...SO WILL ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING...HIGHEST POPS
NORTHEAST SECTIONS.  SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SO DRY CONDITIONS RETURN.

FOR THURSDAY...GFS SHOWS A BACK-DOOR FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE LOW FOR THIS
FEATURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  90  70  87  70 /  30  30  30  70  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  87  69  83  70 /  30  40  60  70  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  88  69  83  69 /  30  40  60  70  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              60  86  66  80  66 /  30  50  60  70  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

TG/DH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
500 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-271000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
500 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2007 /400 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF LOCALIZED FLOODING...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH THESE
STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER NETWORK ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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