Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
318 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH...
SURFACE TROUGH FROM SRN MIDDLE TN INTO NE TN...AND A FEW BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...HAVE CAUSED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS HAVE PULSED JUST UP TO SEVERE
LEVELS...WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO NOTED IN A FEW COUNTIES
(SCOTT/CAMPBELL TN). MAX TEMPS GENERALLY HELD DOWN THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

POP AND WEATHER GRIDS ADJUSTED TO CURRENT RADARS AND A SHORT TERM
FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...KEPT AT LEAST SOME CHANCE
POPS ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. FAVORED A BLEND OF MOS FOR MINS TONIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW IS STILL VERY MUCH NEARBY AND UNSTABLE AGAIN
...SO FAVORED GOING WITH LOWER END OF LIKELY MOST AREAS ON POPS BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WENT CLOSER TO MOS POPS AND MAX TEMPS ACROSS
SRN MOST AREAS...WHICH ARE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE DIURNAL
IN NATURE...BUT CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION JUST ABOUT
ANYTIME. PREVIOUS POP AND WEATHER GRIDS WERE REASONABLE WITH
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. AGAIN...FAVORED WARMER MOS MAX TEMPS FOR SRN
AREAS...AND A MOS BLEND FOR MIN TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS BRING FRONT
INTO AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH
PERIODS WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE
AND LIFT IS EXPECTED.  UPPER LOW LINGERS ON SUNDAY.  WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.  UPPER LOW STILL LINGERING TO THE EAST ON MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP ONLY LOW POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.   STAYED NEAR MOS/HPC FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  86  69  90  69 /  30  50  40  40  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  84  67  87  67 /  40  60  40  40  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  85  66  88  67 /  40  60  40  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  81  63  84  63 /  50  60  40  50  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

TG/GH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
700 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-261000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
700 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2007 /600 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-40.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER NETWORK ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
337 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DANDRIDGE               36.02N 83.42W
07/25/2007                   JEFFERSON          TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FEW TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN THE DANDRIDGE AREA.
            REPORTED BY SHERIFFS OFFICE.

&&

MEP