Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1000 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH EXTENDS TO NEAR THE
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER BUT IS VERY WEAK.  DEW POINTS DO NOT
REALLY DROP OFF UNTIL THE OHIO RIVER.  SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BREAKING
OUT NEAR THIS BOUNDARY IN WEST VIRGINIA AND EXPECT THIS TO SPREAD
WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR WARNING AREA.

MORE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA/GEORGIA WITH COME
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE WILL ALSO HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

ALL THIS SAID TO SAY THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH SOME ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
ACTIVITY.  THE GREATEST THREAT AS USUAL FOR SUMMERTIME CONVECTION IS
FOR DOWNBURST WINDS.

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES COMING.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...RADAR
INDICATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT IN KY HAS
DISSIPATED.  FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE.  BUT STILL SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY
TODAY...WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SOME DIURNAL ACTIVITY TODAY.
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH...WILL GO WITH HIGHER POPS FOR TUESDAY WITH BETTER MOISTURE
AVAILABLE.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE.  KEPT 40 POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.  STAYED NEAR GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...GFS STILL INDICATING A
SERIES ON SHORTWAVES ROTATING OVER THE RIDGE.  WILL GO WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY.  A FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY.  LATEST GFS
INDICATING FRONT OUT OF AREA BY SATURDAY.  WITH STILL SOME DOUBT ON
TIMING...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY.  DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  88  70  89  70  90 /  30  30  50  40  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  68  89  69  88 /  30  30  40  30  40
OAK RIDGE, TN  88  68  89  69  88 /  30  30  40  30  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN  86  65  87  67  86 /  30  30  30  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

HW

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
125 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2007

VAZ005-006-008-161830-
RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-
125 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING RUSSELL...SCOTT AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES...

AT 124 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ALLISON GAP TO 6 MILES NORTH OF GATE CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MILES AN HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

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