Wind Chill Advisory 1, NWS Marquette, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
525 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES TRENDS AND WIND CHILLS INTO AT LEAST MON
ALONG WITH TEMPS.

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN
WITH A RDG FROM THE ERN PACIFIC TO AK WITH A POLAR VORTEX DESCENDING
THROUGH WRN ONTARIO INTO BROAD TROF DOMINATING NOAM. A SHRTWV MOVING
THROUGH BASE OF TROF HELPING TO SUPPORT SHSN OVER ERN UPR AND LOWER
MI WHILE ENHANCING LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. CONVERGENT WRLY FLOW
ALONG STALLED ARCTIC BOUNDARY PRODUCING HEAVY LES BANDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TODAY. BACKING FLOW TO WEST
HAS PUSHED HEAVIER LES OFFSHORE OVER ERN COUNTIES OVER CWFA.
ONTONAGON PER RADAR AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. BITTER COLD AIR
FILTERING IN FROM MN AND NRN WI WITH WRLY FLOW HAS PREVENTED TEMPS
FM RISING MUCH THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER MUCH
OF THE CFWA.

TONIGHT...RUC AND LOCAL WRF-ARW SHOWS WINDS SLOWLY SHIFTING NW OVER
WRN FCST AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC BOUNDARY
SAGS S OVER THE AREA. MDLS SUGGEST THAT FAIRLY STRONG LOW LVL CONV
IN THE EVENING VCNTY KCMX WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER ONTONAGON AND SRN
HOUGHTON WITH VEERING WINDS BEHIND THE SHRTWV AND NEXT ARCTIC COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL SHIFT HEAVIER LES FROM THE KEWEENAW INTO ONTONAGON
AND SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SO...HAVE
REPLACED WATCHES FOR ONTONAGON WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH SAT AND WITH WINTER WX ADV/S FOR SRN HOUGHTON/BARAGA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. -25 TO -30C 850 MB TEMPS SAGGING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY EVENTUALLY INHIBIT GOOD SNOWFLAKE GROWTH BY SAT BUT
INITIALLY TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOOK FOR
SNOW GROWTH TO BE DECENT ENOUGH FOR 4 TO LOCALLY 8 INCHES OVER LES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF ONTONAGON COUNTY WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER
BARAGA AND SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES. WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR NRN
HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTY THROUGH SAT. MDLS CONSISTENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE INDUCED LOW OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THE HEAVIER LES OFFSHORE OVER THE NE CWA TIL LATE WHEN
ANOTHER STRONG CONVERGENCE BAND COULD BRUSH THE SHORELINE.

SAT THROUGH SUN...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY THAT REMAINS WITH THE
TIMING/POSITION OF THE LOW LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE WHICH
WILL HELP FOCUS THE LES BANDS...KEPT WINTER STORM WATCH GOING FOR
ALGER-LUCE SAT THROUGH SUN. LOOKS LIKE HEAVIER LES BANDS MAY NOT
SHIFT INTO NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY TIL LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NIGHT.
THUS...HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH THERE FOR SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. THESE ERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A FOOT OR MORE OF LES SAT
THROUGH SUN ALONG WITH LOWERING WIND CHILL READINGS (-20 TO -30).
THE VERY COLD AIRMASS(850 MB TEMPS AROUND -30C) WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DECENT SNOWFLAKE GROWTH BY SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN SO THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER AT SAME TIME...PROLONGED CONVERGENCE IN THE VCNTY
OF TROF MIGHT LOCALLY MODIFY THE AIRMASS ENOUGH FOR A LOCALLY MORE
FAVORABLE SNOWGROWTH ENVIRONMENT. SO FOR NOW...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP
LIKELY POPS GOING FOR WRN COUNTIES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BUT HAVE
NOT EXTENDED CURRENT HEADLINES GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF SNOW AMOUNTS.
WITH VERY LOW WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE 25 TO NEAR 40 BELOW RANGE
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR MQT AND
SRN TIER COUNTIES WHERE LES WILL NOT BE AS MUCH OF A FACTOR. WILL
PROBABLY NEED A WIND CHILL ADV SAT FOR SOME COUNTIES AS TEMPS REMAIN
BLO ZERO THROUGH THE DAY AND WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME A PROBLEM ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED WITH A HEADLINE AT
SOME POINT FOR COUNTIES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DUE TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SUN WILL INCREASE NW GRAD
AND WILL CONTINUE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILL MISERY SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. WILL ALSO KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR LES OVER THOSE
COUNTIES FAVORED BY NW FLOW. THE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DUE TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -20 TO
-25C OVER THE AREA SO EXPECT LES TO CONTINUE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FOR
NW SNOWBELT LOCATIONS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO FOR NIGHTTIME
LOWS AND STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON TUE. PERIODIC
SHORTWAVES MOVING DOWN FROM NRN CANADA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK WILL
CONTINUE TO WARRANT CHCS FOR LES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR COUNTIES WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY REMAINING NEAR OR BLO NORMAL.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MIZ006-007.

WINTER STORM WATCH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR MIZ085.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM EST TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM EST
SATURDAY EVENING FOR MIZ002.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 6 PM EST
SATURDAY EVENING FOR MIZ004-009-084.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

WIND CHILL WATCH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR MIZ005-010>014.

&&

VOSS

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