Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Marquette, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
441 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A MID LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN
HUDSON BAY AND A ZONAL FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES WESTWARD.
WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE TRAVELING IN THIS FLOW AND ARE OVER NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA...JUST NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...AND SWEEPING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER THE
EASTERN U.P. WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. A SECONDARY AND MUCH WEAKER COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND STRONG MUCAPE
VALUES ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING A JET MAX HAVE
GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AND LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MON)...
FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE SEVERE CONVECTION THIS
EVENING.

CONVECTION OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND CENTRAL CWA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THIS EVENING IN THE ZONAL FLOW. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE CWA THIS EVENING...PUSHING THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE EAST CENTRAL
ONTARIO BY 00Z THEN INTO SOUTHERN JAMES BY BY 12Z...ALL THE WHILE
DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE COLD FRONT
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
THE GFS MUCAPE VALUES WILL EXCEED 1500J/KG OVER THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN U.P. EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN ABOUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE NIGHT...GIVEN THE
FACT THAT MODELS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT COOLING TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

THE GFS/NAM ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. TWO WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL RACE THROUGH THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW OVER JAMES
BAY WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST HUDSON BAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL WASHOUT IN THE MORNING. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT THRU SUN)...

ALL RECENT MODEL TRENDS POINT TO A FASTER PROGRESSION OF PATTERN
INTO WED. SO...HIGH PRES WHICH WILL BE SETTLING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
MON AFTN WILL DRIFT E A BIT FASTER MON NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL
BUMP MIN TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY...MAINLY OVER THE W WHERE RETURN FLOW ON
BACKSIDE OF HIGH WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON RADIATION COOLING THERE.
STILL...THERE WILL BE SOME 40S IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS...
ESPECIALLY E.

TUE...ATTENTION TURNS TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL BE TRACKING
E TO MN/ONTARIO. WITH TRENDS TOWARD A FASTER PROGRESSION OF
PATTERN...FCST AREA WILL NOW MORE LIKELY BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SVR
STORMS AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES E. 12Z NAM/GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR
SHOWING COLD FRONT REACHING CNTRL UPPER MI BY 00Z WED. AS IN
PREVIOUS RUNS...UKMET CONTINUES TO BE FASTEST. IT SHOWS COLD FRONT
INTO THE ERN U.P. BY 00Z WED. ALTHOUGH THE OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD THE FASTER UKMET...NAM/GFS TIMING LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
ESTIMATE...ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING THE GLOBAL CANADIAN STILL HAS
COLD FRONT JUST W OF KIWD AT 00Z TUE. SO...TIMING WILL BE NEARLY
IDEAL FOR COLD FRONT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF LATE AFTN PEAK
INSTABILITY. SPEAKING OF WHICH...GFS MLCAPE REACHES ABOUT 1200J/KG
WHILE NAM MAXES OUT AROUND 1700J/KG. EVEN IF MLCAPE IS ONLY
1000J/KG...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60KT PER GFS/NAM WILL LEAD
TO ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A SVR STORM THREAT. WOULD EXPECT A BREAK
IN PCPN BEHIND FRONTAL CONVECTION...THEN IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE
SOME -SHRA WRAPPING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.

WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING WELL E OF FCST AREA BY WED MORNING...WILL
NEED TO LWR HIGHS FOR WED FROM PREVIOUS FCST AS 850MB TEMPS WILL
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE 4-7C RANGE BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH 12Z
GFS/NAM SHOW NO PCPN WED...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES IN COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS...MAINLY IN THE AFTN.

THU THRU SUN...VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT AN UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED POSITIVE PNA REGIME WILL DOMINATE
THIS TIME PERIOD OVER NAMERICA. SO...AS WE APPROACH THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL WARMEST TIME OF YEAR...IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH TEMPS BLO NORMAL THU THRU SUN. CHILLY MIDLEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH
AMPLIFIED TROF FOR JULY (700MB TEMPS 2 TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW JULY AVG AND 500MB TEMPS -18C TO -20C) SUGGEST INSTABILITY
SHRA ARE A DECENT BET DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING HRS
THU/FRI...AND EVEN THE SUBTLEST OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING THRU THE AREA
WILL ONLY INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHRA. SHOULD A SHORTWAVE PASS
DURING PEAK HEATING...MAY END UP WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL GIVEN LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND WET BULB ZERO (5-6KFT) PER
GFS FCST SOUNDINGS. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY ADD A MENTION OF TSRA TO THU
AFTN WITH SOME AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE PASSING AND 500MB THERMAL
TROF NEAR -20C. SAT/SUN...DISAGREEMENTS EMERGE BTWN THE
ECWMF/GFS/GLOBAL CANADIAN. 00Z/06Z GFS MANAGE TO WEAKEN WRN
RIDGE...LEADING TO MODIFICATION OF COOL AIRMASS OVER THE UPPER LAKES
WHILE GLOBAL CANADIAN KEEPS A DEEPER VORTEX OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON
BAY. PER HPC PREFERENCE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS WRN
RIDGE MORE INTACT WITH VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY A BIT FARTHER N THAN
GLOBAL CANADIAN. SO...WILL TREND BLO GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS THU/FRI SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME
SLIGHT MODERATION SAT/SUN...BUT STILL BLO NORMAL FOR MID JULY. OPTED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHC POPS TO SAT AFTN/EVENING WITH EXPECTATION OF
LONGWAVE TROF MAINTAINING ITS POSITION AND KEEPING AREA UNDER A
POTENTIAL DAYTIME INSTABILITY -SHRA REGIME. WILL GO WITH A DRY DAY
ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT MEANDERS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. MUCAPE VALUES AS
MENTIONED ABOVE SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN U.P. SHOWERS ARE
SHOWING UP OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. SHOWERS
AND A THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AT LOW LEVEL WILL STABILIZE THE THE AIR MASS OVER
THE NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND OVER KSAW BY EARLY EVENING. DRY
AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT THAT PASS THROUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST)...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A HIGH
WILL FILTER IN FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND WEAK UNDER THE HIGH. ON
TUESDAY...A LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL RACE TO LAKE SUPERIOR...
AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGER
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MIX DOWN TO SURFACE CAUSING NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY CAUSING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH SOME. MEANWHILE...A LOW CENTER
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO
WESTERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...DLG
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION/MARINE...DLG

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
141 PM EDT SUN JUL 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 AM     HAIL             ROCKLAND                46.74N 89.18W
07/08/2007  E1.00 INCH       ONTONAGON          MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0430 AM     HAIL             TWIN LAKES              46.90N 88.83W
07/08/2007  E1.75 INCH       HOUGHTON           MI   PUBLIC

            TREES STRIPPED OF LEAVES AND SOME VEHICLE DAMAGE.

0459 AM     HAIL             7 SW PELKIE             46.75N 88.73W
07/08/2007  U0.75 INCH       HOUGHTON           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0503 AM     HAIL             7 NW BARAGA             46.85N 88.60W
07/08/2007  E0.75 INCH       BARAGA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0507 AM     HAIL             PELKIE                  46.82N 88.63W
07/08/2007  E0.25 INCH       BARAGA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0515 AM     HAIL             SOUTH RANGE             47.07N 88.64W
07/08/2007  E1.75 INCH       HOUGHTON           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0540 AM     HAIL             TAPIOLA                 46.92N 88.62W
07/08/2007  M1.00 INCH       HOUGHTON           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0545 AM     HAIL             CHAMPION                46.52N 87.97W
07/08/2007  M0.75 INCH       MARQUETTE          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0550 AM     HAIL             KEWEENAW BAY            46.87N 88.47W
07/08/2007  M0.50 INCH       BARAGA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0650 AM     HAIL             2 S STONINGTON          45.70N 86.98W
07/08/2007  E0.88 INCH       DELTA              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0655 AM     HAIL             4 E NEGAUNEE            46.50N 87.51W
07/08/2007  M0.75 INCH       MARQUETTE          MI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OBSERVED AT WFO MARQUETTE

0710 AM     HAIL             1 S HARVEY              46.48N 87.35W
07/08/2007  M1.00 INCH       MARQUETTE          MI   NWS EMPLOYEE

0712 AM     HAIL             4 E NEGAUNEE            46.50N 87.51W
07/08/2007  M1.50 INCH       MARQUETTE          MI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OBSERVED AT WFO MARQUETTE

0715 AM     HAIL             2 E NEGAUNEE            46.50N 87.55W
07/08/2007  M1.50 INCH       MARQUETTE          MI   NWS EMPLOYEE

0717 AM     HAIL             5 SE HARVEY             46.44N 87.28W
07/08/2007  M1.25 INCH       MARQUETTE          MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0723 AM     HAIL             SUNDELL                 46.35N 87.08W
07/08/2007  E1.00 INCH       ALGER              MI   PUBLIC

0735 AM     HAIL             6 SSE HARVEY            46.41N 87.30W
07/08/2007  E1.00 INCH       MARQUETTE          MI   NWS EMPLOYEE

0755 AM     HAIL             5 E ROUND LAKE          46.15N 86.64W
07/08/2007  M0.50 INCH       DELTA              MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0757 AM     HAIL             7 E ROUND LAKE          46.15N 86.60W
07/08/2007  E0.88 INCH       DELTA              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERED GROUND

0828 AM     HAIL             GULLIVER                45.98N 86.02W
07/08/2007  E0.88 INCH       SCHOOLCRAFT        MI   PUBLIC

0834 AM     HAIL             4 E GULLIVER            45.98N 85.94W
07/08/2007  M1.00 INCH       SCHOOLCRAFT        MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JLEE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
303 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2007

MIZ005-081945-
MARQUETTE-
303 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 255 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MICHIGAMME...OR 24 MILES WEST OF ISHPEMING...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL MARQUETTE COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT FOR
THE AREA.

JLA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
421 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2007

MIZ006-082100-
ALGER-
421 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR ALGER COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 412 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF DEERTON...OR 17 MILES WEST OF
MUNISING...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  CHATHAM.
  AU TRAIN.
  CHRISTMAS.
  WETMORE.
  SHINGLETON.
  MELSTRAND.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

PEARSON