Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
313 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS ARE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF OUR CWA.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHWEST MN...NORTHEAST IOWA NEAR LOWER
LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN OVER EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN LIFT WELL NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE REST OF
WEEKEND. THIS AFTERNOON...SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL CLUSTER OF CELLS HAD DEVELOPED
ALONG THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER. THE CONCERN...IS FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  TRAINING OF TSRA OR
STORM BACKBUILDING OVR EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN
OVERNIGHT. WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AS DEPICTED IN THE 700 MB PROGS
WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.  ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINS IS LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
LONG MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S BY
SUNDAY. AIRMASS SHOULD BE WELL CAPPED SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

AVIATION.../18Z TAF CYCLE/
SHRA/TS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT MAIN IMPACT TO
BE RWF TO MSP AND SOUTH...BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. E/SE SFC WINDS AROUND
10-15 MPH WILL PREVAIL DURING PERIOD.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
522 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
221030-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
522 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH A
LINE FROM MONTEVIDEO THROUGH HUTCHINSON TO THE SOUTHERN TWIN
CITIES METROPOLITAN AREA. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TONIGHT
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS FROM MONTEVIDEO THROUGH REDWOOD FALLS TO
ALBERT LEA ON SOUTHWARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE GREATEST THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GRANITE FALLS TO OWATONNA. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED.

RAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
126 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

MNZ082-091-211915-
MARTIN-WATONWAN-
126 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR WATONWAN AND MARTIN COUNTIES UNTIL
215 PM CDT...

AT 121 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BERGEN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. PEA SIZED
HAIL WAS REPORTED IN COTTONWOOD COUNTY WITH THIS STORM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE TRIMONT...FOX LAKE...SHERBURN
WELCOME AND FAIRMONT.

MARGRAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
408 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     HAIL             10 NW LAKE CRYSTAL      44.21N 94.36W
06/21/2007  E1.00 INCH       BLUE EARTH         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ELN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
429 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     HAIL             3 W GOOD THUNDER        44.01N 94.13W
06/21/2007  E0.88 INCH       BLUE EARTH         MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ON COUNTY ROAD 13

&&

ELN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
453 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     HAIL             BRICELYN                43.56N 93.81W
06/21/2007  E0.88 INCH       FARIBAULT          MN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

ELN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
456 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     HAIL             3 E GLENVILLE           43.57N 93.22W
06/21/2007  E0.75 INCH       FREEBORN           MN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROADS 25 AND 13

&&

ELN