Special Marine Warning 49, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
530 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT). LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESS
BUILDING SE FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO THE LOWER SE CONUS AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST. WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD SW THROUGH TONIGHT AS
MAIN UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEPICT ANOTHER WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROF MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF...SLOWLY
SHIFTING SE OUT OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WED.
BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THIS PATTERN TODAY RESULTING IN BETTER
RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL BE OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE CWFA
GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH PWS UP TO 2.0 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A DEEPER
LAYERED MOISTURE PROFILE POSSIBLY GIVING WAY TO A BETTER LIGHTNING
THREAT WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL STAY CLOSE OR GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WARMER TEMPS WILL BE OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THOUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...STALLED FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL GET A PUSH SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS WILL
BRING SOME DRIER AIR TO NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA. THUS THE BEST
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL BE
ACROSS GENERALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW COMBINED W/ DAILY SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO POPS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ONE OF
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BRING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY THAT WILL STALL OVER US FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW. CONTINUED TO GO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE MEX NUMBERS AS IT REMAINS TOO COOL. /13

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME BETTERED DEVELOPED AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. A
LIGHT  WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. /32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  72  87  72 /  60  50  50  20
PENSACOLA   86  73  87  73 /  60  60  40  20
DESTIN      86  74  87  75 /  60  60  30  20
EVERGREEN   87  70  88  68 /  60  50  30  20
WAYNESBORO  86  70  89  68 /  60  50  40  20
CAMDEN      89  71  89  69 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

32/EE
13/JC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-041200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
600 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE
ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY MOST STORMS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE STORMS WILL TYPICALLY BE BETWEEN A TENTH
AND A QUARTER INCH...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...IN ADDITION
TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH THIS EVENING.

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