Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
415 PM CST THU MAR 1 2007

.SHORT TERM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS
VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN IOWA...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
NEW ORLEANS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-65. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NORTHWEST OF I-65 THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR IN
COLD PRONE AREAS EACH NIGHT.

.LONG TERM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
WITH US THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY RECOVER MID WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
MID WEEK...A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE COLD OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NEAR FREEZING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR
NORMAL. /22

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN HAZARDOUS TONIGHT AS WE CONTINUE
TO DEAL WITH A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES.
SOME OF THE EVENING STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS EVENING AND ALONG
WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS...HAZARDS TO SMALL
MARINE CRAFT EXISTS. ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED TONIGHT. SURFACE FRONT
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER...SLIDES EAST LATER TONIGHT AND
BRINGS AN END TO THUNDERSTORM THREAT THEN. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING EASTWARD FRIDAY LOOKS TO BECOME REINFORCED OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
SETTING UP. MODERATE SEAS CONTINUE...HIGHEST BEING WELL OFFSHORE DUE
TO LONGER FETCH LENGTHS THERE. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A DECREASE IN
WINDS AND A SUBSIDING SEA STATE. /10

&&

.FIRE...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT BRINGING DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 35
PERCENT FOR MANY LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA...AND A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      46  68  41  71 /  40  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   48  65  44  69 /  80  10  10  10
DESTIN      51  65  47  66 /  80  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   45  68  36  67 /  70  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  41  68  38  67 /  40  10  10  10
CAMDEN      45  68  38  67 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...
     ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER
     BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 5 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...COASTAL WALTON...INLAND ESCAMBIA...
     INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 60
     NM...AND MOBILE BAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-
021200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
MOBILE BAY-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
GEORGE-GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
1155 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
PERRY...GEORGE...GREEN AND WAYNE COUNTIES OF MISSISSIPPI.

...A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER STONE COUNTY
MISSISSIPPI...

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...WITH FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR CONTINUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED...POSSIBLE LONG TRACK TORNADOES TODAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT SHOULD BE ENDING BY EARLY EVENING NORTHWEST OF
I-65...AND MAY PERSIST UNTIL 9 PM SOUTHWEST OF I-65 BEFORE MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA.  DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MOVE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 40 MPH.

IT IS ADVISED TO MAKE SURE NOAA WEATHER RADIOS ARE SET TO ALERT YOU
OF IMPENDING SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS.  STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES ON THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL THE
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND SEAS SUBSIDE.  HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ARE
REQUIRED FOR THIS PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DRY WEATHER SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO AN INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT...OTHERWISE NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1022 AM CST THU MAR 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 AM     HAIL             2 W GREENVILLE          31.83N 86.65W
03/01/2007  M1.00 INCH       BUTLER             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL JUST WEST OF GREENVILLE

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1248 PM CST THU MAR 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1137 AM     TSTM WND DMG     10 S MUNSON             30.71N 86.87W
03/01/2007                   SANTA ROSA         FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR HWY 191 NEAR SPRING HILL. TREES AND
            POWER LINES DOWN.

1230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FLORALA                 31.00N 86.33W
03/01/2007                   COVINGTON          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN, CARPORT DESTROYED.

&&

GB