Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
213 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007

.UPDATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPGRADED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN
COUNTIES IN ALABAMA...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ESCAMBIA COUNTY
FLORIDA...AND ALL OF SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN FLORIDA.
THIS UPGRADE WAS NECESSARY DUE TO PAST AND FORECAST CRITERIA BEING
MET. LAST NIGHTS LOWS ACROSS THESE AREAS WERE 80+ DEGREES AND I
WILL FORECAST 80+ DEGREES FOR THESE SAME AREAS TONIGHT. SO...THE LOW
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT AND WILL NOT GO BELOW 80 DEGREES FOR AT LEAST
A 48 HOUR PERIOD. PLUS...CURRENT AND FORECAST HEAT INDICES WILL BE
110+ DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST NPW PRODUCT
HAS A HEAT ADVISORY EXTENDED ACROSS THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND I MAY UPGRADE TO A WARNING AT THE 4PM ISSUANCE. /22

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
     MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND
     INLAND ESCAMBIA.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA
     ROSA.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

GM...NONE.

&&

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM TODAY AND TONIGHT...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY/FRONT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA IS THE DIVIDING
LINE BETWEEN DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND THE MUGGY AIR MASS TO THE
SOUTH. LOOKS AS IF THE WESTERN END WILL SAG SOUTH TODAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE UPPER HIGH AND MOVES SOUTH...TAKING THE
WESTERN END OF THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. COULD MAKE A CASE FOR
TERMINATING THE HEAT ADVISORY OVER A FEW ZONES TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...BASED ON THE LOWER DEW POINTS OF THE MAV. THE NAM STILL
HAS THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AREAWIDE. USED A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES. HEAT INDICES STILL OVER 100
DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS ALSO. EXPECT THERE WILL BE A FLARE UP OF LATE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD BE NEAR INTERSTATE 65 BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY
WENT ISOLATED ON THE POPS OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE PRETTY WARM. NAM AND GFS HAS UP TO 10 DEGREE
SPREAD ON TONIGHTS LOWS (MOB). WENT CLOSER TO THE MAV WHEN THERE WAS
A BIG DIFFERENCE AS THINK THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE
COAST...AT LEAST OVER THE ALABAMA COASTAL COUNTIES. /11

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

.LONG TERM SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
TAKE UP A LARGE EXPANSE FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE LOWER AS A BROAD UPPER TROF MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. WITH THE RIDGE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE
FOR OUR AREA...HOT WEATHER WILL BE WITH US FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. A
LOOK AT THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT PROFILES WITH HEIGHT ALONG
WITH WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A DRIER
AIRMASS WHICH CAUSES DAYTIME SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT/LOWER.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...PINCHING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC TROF LATE NEXT
WEEK...GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND TRACKS
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SLIPPING SOUTHWEST AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST AND
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST...COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TREND
CLOSER TO NORMAL. /10

&&

.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO WEST OVER THE MARINE ZONES TODAY
THEN MORE VARIABLE TONIGHT AND THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY BAYS AND
NEAR SHORE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SLIPS TO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS. GENERALLY WEST AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY MIDWEEK AS THE
GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY 2 FEET OR
LESS UNTIL INCREASING A BIT BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND.  /11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH DAYTIME DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO
LOWER...LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS WEEKEND. NO HEADLINES. /10

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
214 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-121915-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
214 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...GM AND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING WITH
A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUING IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM ELSEWHERE. HEAT INDEX
ABOVE 125 DEGREES HAVE BEEN INDICATED BY MEASURED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE OBSERVING NETWORK INCLUDING MESONET AND SOME
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER STATIONS. HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 105 TO
115 ELSEWHERE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HOT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK BUT HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER BY SUNDAY...EXCEPT
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
239 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007

ALZ059-FLZ003-005-112015-
ESCAMBIA-INLAND OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
239 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER ESCAMBIA...OKALOOSA
AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES...

AT 231 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF MCLELLAN MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
MUNSON THROUGH 315 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
239 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007

ALZ059-FLZ003-005-112015-
ESCAMBIA-INLAND OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
239 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER ESCAMBIA...OKALOOSA
AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES...

AT 231 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4 MILES SOUTH OF MCLELLAN TO 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BIG SPRINGS MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...THE INTERSTATE
10 AREA FROM THE ALABAMA FLORIDA LINE TO CRESTVIEW THROUGH 315 PM
CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH
COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM HAS PASSED.

THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.