Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WWUS54 KMOB 192318
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
616 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2007

ALC025-192330-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0111.000000T0000Z-070719T2330Z/
CLARKE AL-
616 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL CLARKE COUNTY...

AT 608 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL 
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER 
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL CLARKE COUNTY...OR ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF 
CARLTON. THE STORM IS MOVING SOUTH AT AROUND 5 MPH. THIS STORM HAS 
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FEW MINUTES...BUT IS STILL CAPABLE 
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH 630 PM.     

LAT...LON 3134 8789 3131 8793 3121 8791 3128 8784

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2007

.SHORT TERM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY YET DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...WILL MENTION AN ISOLATED (10%
COVERAGE) UNTIL 10 PM. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED
MODERATE CUMULUS CLOUDS HAD DEVELOPED IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...A BLANKET OF DENSE CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS WITH THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE IS
PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT EAST CONUS SYSTEM WILL ALSO APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A 1023 MB HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z SATURDAY. GFS
NOW ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY...AND TIMING SUGGEST THAT
GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE WITH POPS. THEREFORE...RAISED
COVERAGE ABOUT 20% TO LIKELY (60-70%) FOR SATURDAY. A DRY AIR MASS
WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING SKIES.

ELIMINATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY IN THE DRY POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...AND EXPECT SUNNY SKIES. BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL IN
THE LOWER 90S DUE TO STRONG INSOLATION AND DRIER AIR. /22

&&

.LONG TERM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MADE SOME CHANGES TO DAY 4
(MONDAY) TO ELIMINATE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TO LOWER CLOUD
COVERAGE AS GFS NOW ADVERTISES A MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT. WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AND MOISTURE SLOW TO RETURN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ONLY AROUND 1.5 INCHES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO DAYS 5, 6 AND 7...AND KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE IN
THE FORECAST. /22

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD...
WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM ALOFT TO BRING THE FEATURE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE HEART OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE
BOUNDARY PROPAGATES SOUTHWARD...COULD VERY WELL BE A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS COMING OFF THE LAND AND IMPACTING COMMERCIAL AND
RECREATIONAL BOATING ACTIVITIES. AWAY FROM STORMS...LIGHT
WINDS...COMING AROUND TO OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND AND LOW WAVE
HEIGHTS LOOK TO PERSIST. /10

&&

.FIRE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL OF RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
BEING MET. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  94  73  90 /  10  30  30  70
PENSACOLA   76  95  75  89 /  10  20  30  60
DESTIN      79  91  77  89 /  10  20  30  50
EVERGREEN   72  94  71  90 /  10  20  40  70
WAYNESBORO  72  93  71  90 /  10  30  40  60
CAMDEN      73  94  72  91 /  10  30  40  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

/22
/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2007

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-201200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
600 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...AND THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA TO DESTIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
548 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2007

ALZ052-053-062-192330-
UPPER BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-
548 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER WASHINGTON...CLARKE
AND BALDWIN COUNTIES...

AT 536 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF TENSAW  THE THUNDERSTORM WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
NORTHWESTERN BALDWIN COUNTY THROUGH 630 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN SMALL
TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK
SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.