Marine Weather Statement 46, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
332 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...WEAKENING FRONT OR SURFACE
TROUGH PARKED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD
THE BEACH THROUGH TONIGHT. ITS CHARACTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED BUT COULD
BE CLASSIFIED AS A BONA FIDE FRONT BECAUSE OF THE ADVECTIVE PROCESSES
ASSOCIATED THEREWITH. THESE ARE HAPPENING SOMEWHAT NORTH OF THE
FRONT...AS WE LOCATED THE FRONT BY WIND AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. STILL
WE ARE LESS INCLINED TO CLASSIFY IT AS A TROUGH JUST YET. THIS FRONT
DOES SEEM TO RETAIN SOME OF ITS FRONTAL CHARACTER TO ABOUT 850 MB.

WEAK LOW ROTATING EAST OF HERE IS REACTING TO A 500 MB VORTLOBE
SWINGING AROUND A TROUGH ORIENTED EAST-WEST OVER LOUISIANA. THIS WILL
REMAINING STATIONARY AND WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS
FRONTOLYTIC PROCESSES DOMINATE THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF FRONTOLYSIS...
THESE OTHER FACTORS WILL AGAIN ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HAVE CONTINUED FAVORING MET MOS
OVER MAV MOS NUMBERS ON THE POP FORECAST FOR THE FIRST THREE
PERIODS...BUT BELIEVE MET KEEPS THINGS WET FOR TOO LONG CONSIDERING
HOW THE PROGS PREDICT THE PATTERN LAYOUT AFTER 36 HOURS. THUS WILL
SWITCH BACK OVER TO MAV AND THAT WAY WILL BLEND IN TO THE MEX
GUIDANCE FROM OUR PREDECESSORS. HIGHS WILL BE LOWER 90S WEST AND
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EAST BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
THESE WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND WITH HIGH RH
AND LIGHT WIND THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS...CONVECTION WILL HAVE HIGH
RAINMAKING EFFICIENCY...MINIMAL ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR...AND SLOW
MOVEMENT. THIS MEANS HIGH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION CAN OCCUR IN
PLACES...BUT THE ACTUAL LOCATION WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY ON THE
MESOSCALE OR SMALLER WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR THE SEABREEZE.

(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
REMAINS AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH WEST OF US LIFTS OUT. THIS WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/77

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO CHANGES TO MENTION. GUIDANCE
POPS EXPECTED UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AS SEABREEZE TAKES OVER THROUGH
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

/77

&&

.FIRE...NO CONCERNS...HIGH RH MINIMA...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...AND
LOW DISPERSION.

/77

.MARINE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR TALLAHASSEE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE MARINE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT STALLS ALONG THE
COAST BY MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS IT
SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. A VARIABLE WIND
FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...DOMINATED BY A
NORTHERLY FLOW AT NIGHT...AND A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
EACH AFTERNOON.

/22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  92  73  92 /  30  40  30  20
PENSACOLA   73  91  74  90 /  30  50  30  20
DESTIN      76  89  77  89 /  50  60  50  30
EVERGREEN   69  89  70  89 /  40  50  30  30
WAYNESBORO  68  93  69  92 /  20  30  20  20
CAMDEN      70  93  71  88 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
505 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2007

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-
011200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
MOBILE BAY-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
GEORGE-GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA
INLAND-STONE-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
505 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA TO NEAR
MONTGOMERY ALABAMA WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THIS EVENING.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH ALABAMA WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AROUND
45 MPH...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE MID EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTH ALABAMA SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
504 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2007

MSZ078-312230-
STONE-
504 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER STONE COUNTY...

AT 504 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF BEATRICE...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT
20 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
SOUTHEASTERN STONE COUNTY THROUGH 530 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>