Marine Weather Statement 41, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
330 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...THIS AFTERNOONS SFC
MAP INDICATES ONE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND
ANOTHER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BETWEEN THE TWO...A WEAK
TROUGH LIES EAST TO WEST ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND
MISSISSIPPI. 65+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST...
WITH 70 TO 75+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS NOTED OVER OUR FCST AREA TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. WHILE WE DO HAVE CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS FAIRLY SPOTTY AT THIS TIME AND
DONT EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE A WHOLE LOT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL SEEING THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPINNING AROUND OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE MOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

MOST MODELS AGREE IN SLIGHTLY WEAKENING THIS FEATURE AND MOVING IT
VERY LITTLE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME WEAK VORTICITY ROTATING UP
AND AROUND INTO OUR FCST AREA ON MONDAY.  THIS...COMBINED WITH THE
SFC TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FCST ON MONDAY. CONVECTION COVERAGE LESS
THAN EARLIER EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A DAY OF
RECOVERY...THE LIKELY POPS FOR TOMORROW SEEMS REASONABLE. THIS
MORNINGS SWODY2 DISCUSSION FOR THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION INDICATING
A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS FAR SRN MS BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVING INLAND ACROSS SRN MS...SE LA AND SRN AL. SPC INDICATES THAT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY CREATE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A
MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE BETTER
ORGANIZED CELLS. APPEARS THEY WERE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE NAM
SOLUTION...BUT AS HPC NOTED...THE NAM IS BRINGING MORE ENERGY ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AROUND 00Z/29 WEDNESDAY THAN ITS 00Z/26 RUN
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS REASONABLE CONTINUITY OVER THIS REGION AND IS
SUPPORTED BY THE MOST RECENT ECMWF...GEM...AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. SO
WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AND WONT GET CARRIED AWAY WITH SVR THREAT AT THIS TIME
(ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG/SVR PULSE STORM IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR). RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY LOWER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION...AND
CONTINUES INTO LONG TERM PERIOD.  LOOK FOR TEMPS TO BE AT OR JUST
ABOVE CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.  12/DS

THE WET MICROBURST RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...NO CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS LONG TERM PACKAGE. AS MENTIONED...HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SFC
AND ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN THU AND FRI PER GFS. ALSO NOTED POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING INTO EASTERN GULF LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT FOR
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ANY EFFECTS FROM THIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE SEASONAL POPS AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS GENERALLY IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THURSDAY.  A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND PREVAILS
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN A DIURNAL WIND PATTERN OF LIGHT ONSHORE
DURING THE DAY AND LIGHT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT ENSUES.  SEAS WILL BE 1
TO 2 FEET. 13/JC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY. WITH THIS...EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
AND LESS HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS WELL. LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL KEEP DAYTIME DISPERSIONS FROM BECOMING TOO HIGH.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN AN ONSHORE FLOW...KEEPING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. NO HEADLINES. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  88  72  90 /  40  70  40  50
PENSACOLA   75  88  76  88 /  40  70  40  50
DESTIN      77  89  77  88 /  40  70  40  50
EVERGREEN   71  89  71  91 /  40  70  40  50
WAYNESBORO  71  90  71  89 /  30  50  30  50
CAMDEN      72  90  72  91 /  30  50  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
100 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-
271200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
MOBILE BAY-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
GEORGE-GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
100 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.