Marine Weather Statement 24, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
415 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY WILL DRIFT TO NEAR THE COAST
AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...THEN TAPER OFF BY LATE EVENING. DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT OVER
INTERIOR ZONES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOWER AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OVER INTERIOR ZONES ON THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON
MINS IN THE LOWER 40 PERCENT RANGE. LOOKING FOR LOWER POPS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOST OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. FOLLOWED TREND OF PREVIOUS SHIFT AND KEPT OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE...BUT WE WENT WITH THE HIGHER TEMPS
THAT GUIDANCE IS NOW ADVERTISING FOR TOMORROW AS THE DRIER AIRMASS
SHOULD HEAT UP...THEN COOLER AS MENTIONED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
SAME REASONS. THE WET MICROBURST RISK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND FOR THIS EVENING...MODERATE.  /12

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...NO CHANGES OF NOTE.
BROAD UPPER TROFFING STILL LOOKS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED JUST WEST OF
THE FCST AREA KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. /12

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE TROUGH OFF TO THE NORTH WILL EASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER TONIGHT...SENDING THE WINDS TO A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH SPEED AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ON
THE NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WIND OVER THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
THE WINDS...SEA BREEZE MAKING FOR AN ONSHORE LATE MORNING AFTERNOON
WIND NEAR SHORE AND A LIGHT NIGHT TIME OFFSHORE WIND OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS AFTER TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE
AREA EARLY THIS WEEKEND WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW SHOULD
PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE DAY OVER THE MARINE AREA. SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY 1 TO
3 FEET WITH WAVE HEIGHTS DIMINISHING TO A FOOT OR BY LATE WEEKEND AS
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. /11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK TROUGH WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES TO BE LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. WE WILL SEE WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT. /01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  95  74  95 /  30  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   79  95  76  93 /  20  20  10  20
DESTIN      80  93  77  92 /  20  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   72  95  67  95 /  30  10  10  20
WAYNESBORO  71  94  67  93 /  30  10  10  30
CAMDEN      71  94  67  94 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1201 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2007

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-121100-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1201 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE
ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AND MOVING EAST ACROSS
PARTS OF ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WERE DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS ALABAMA.  SOME STORMS
WILL PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.  A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY NORTH AND EAST OF A CAMDEN TO BRANTLEY
LINE...PRIMARILY PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES DUE TO A
LARGE TIDAL CYCLE AND LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE REQUIRED MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
315 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2007

ALZ056-112045-
CONECUH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EVERGREEN...
315 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER CONECUH COUNTY...

AT 311 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM OVER EVERGREEN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
PAUL THROUGH 345 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.