Fire Weather Watch 64, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
340 AM CST WED NOV 7 2007

.SYNOPSIS...FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST...ITEMS TO DEAL WITH ARE THE
FIRST FREEZING TEMPS OF THE LATE FALL/WINTER SEASON TONIGHT AND WILL
THEY DIP AS LOW THURSDAY NIGHT. NEXT...TEMPS AND POPS WITH SEVERAL
FRONTS IN THE EXTENDED. FIRST...TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT
HAPPENINGS OVER THE CONUS AND SURROUNDING AREAS...AN UPPER LOW WAS
ANALYZED OVER EASTERN CA...WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER MEX...STRETCHING
NORTHWEST...WITH A LOW MEANDERING AROUND OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE FRONT WHICH PASSED OVER THE
FA YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GOES PRECIP H20 SHOT SHOWS
THAT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY HAS PUSHED SOUTH OVER THE CONUS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISS RIVER...PUSHING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN FL/NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEX AS I TYPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...NO CHANGES OF NOTE TO
PREVIOUS  FCST THINKING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA...NOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING WILL BUILD EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.  THIS
WILL BRING A DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. MOS MIN TEMP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT LAST COUPLE OF
CYCLES...ADVERTISING LOWER 30S OVER MOST INTERIOR ZONES...AND
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SINCE GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT...AND TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT SO THAT ANY
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS WILL HAVE THE DAY TODAY TO PROTECT SENSITIVE
PLANTS...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE
WARNING FOR TONIGHT. TEMPS AT MANY SITES IN THE WARNING AREA WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S TONIGHT...WITH A FEW UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN
THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. WE WILL ISSUE ANOTHER NPW FOR THE
FREEZE WARNING BEFORE 11Z THIS MORNING. 12/DS

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY INTO WEDNESDAY)...THURSDAY STARTS WITH ABUNDANT
ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH...WITH A SHORTWAVE
STARTING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND MORE BEHIND OVER THE
SOUTHERN CA PLAINS. THE CALIFORNIA SYSTEM HAS MEANDERED A BIT
WESTWARD...ALLOWING THE RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH OVER THE PACIFIC
COAST...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SYSTEM IS BEING ADVERTISED
PUSHING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...STARTING TO SHIFT THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND EAST COAST TROUGH EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH HAS SET UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING HAS STRENGTHENED AS THE
CA PLAINS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TIMING SPREAD OF THIS SYSTEM
HAS STARTED TO BECOMING SIGNIFICANT...WITH THE OP GFS LAGGING THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN. THESE LITTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ARE
SHOWING UP IN THE MOS WITH OP GFS BEING WARMER THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
(THURS INTO SATURDAY) AND MET MOS (THURS ONLY).

BY SATURDAY...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED TO OVER THE EAST
COAST...PUSHING A WEAK TRAILING FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOT MUCH PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS LITTLE
PASSAGE OTHER THAN A RE-ENFORCEMENT OF DRY NORTHERLY AIR.

SATURDAY INTO THE COMING WEEK...MORE ENERGY PASSING OVER THE
NORTHERN CONUS/SOUTHERN CA FLATTENS THE RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN PUSHED
OVER THE ROCKIES...AND ALLOWING A GOOD SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO PUSH THE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
EASTWARD. AGAIN...TIMING/PATH ERRORS SHOW UP WITH THE HANDLING OF
THE ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ECMWF IS QUICKER/WEAKER WITH THE
ENERGY MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE ENSEMBLE THE SLOWEST. OP GFS IS IN THE MIDDLE WITH
TIMING...BUT DEVELOPS THE SYSTEM THE MOST. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER AIR AIR FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A PLATE
OF SPAGHETTI...WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BY THIS TIME.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...WENT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH.
FOR THE LATTER FEW DAYS...USED THE GFS SOLUTION AS A START
(ESPECIALLY TIMING)...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HANDLE THE GENERALLY
WEAK SOLUTIONS OFFERED BUT THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH. THIS
IS RESULTING IN A STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WITH THIS...WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z THIS MORNING.
THESE STRONGER WINDS STILL LOOK TO BE RATHER SHORT LIVED...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING BY MID TO LATE MORNING TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA DROPS SOUTH. FOR NOW...STILL
EXPECT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
AS GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS TIGHT...BUT COULD HAVE SOME STRONGER
OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR SHORE TONIGHT WITH COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER SCA FOR LATE
TONIGHT. FORECAST WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST...BUT TURNING MORE
EASTERLY AND THEN BECOMING ONSHORE BY LATE FRIDAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MARINE FORECAST PERIOD. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME RETURN FLOW SETTING UP THURSDAY BRINGING
MOISTURE TO COASTAL AREAS...AND A SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA
BRINGING MOISTURE TO THOSE AREAS. DISPERSIONS WILL LIKELY BE A
PROBLEM TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL SEE LIGHTER FLOW THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST BECOMES THE DOMINATE
PLAYER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      62  35  66  40  71 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   63  39  66  49  69 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      65  44  64  45  69 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   62  32  65  32  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  61  31  65  33  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      62  32  63  33  67 /  00  00  00  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO 8 AM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...WASHINGTON...AND
     WILCOX.

FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...COASTAL WALTON...INLAND ESCAMBIA...
     INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...COASTAL WALTON...INLAND ESCAMBIA...
     INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO 8 AM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO 8 AM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GREENE...PERRY...AND WAYNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

12/16

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