Fire Weather Watch 4, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 AM CST SUN JAN 28 2007

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST SHAPING UP TO BE ONE OF THOSE FORECASTS
THAT A LITTLE CHANGE IN SYSTEM TRACKS OF SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH CAN
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. CURRENTLY...THE UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LOWS SE OF HUDSON BAY AND OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...WITH A SHALLOW TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHEAST OVER THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY. AXIS OF SHORTWAVE WHICH BROUGHT YESTERDAY/LAST
EVENINGS WEATHER HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FA. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WAS MOVING ACROSS NE FL...WITH NEXT FRONT ANALYZED
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FA...HAVING JUST MOVED SE OF THE MISS
DELTA REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...A HARD FREEZE IS IN STORE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.  FOR THIS MORNING...INCLUDED DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES TO HANDLE LINGERING VERY LIGHT AND SPARSE PRECIPITATION AS A
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM CONTINUES EJECTING QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST.  CLOUDS
THEN CLEAR TO THE EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH BRISK WINDS USHERING THE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION.  OUR LOCAL
CRITERIA FOR A HARD FREEZE IS RATHER STRICT AND REQUIRES
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW 26 DEGREES FOR MORE THAN 5 HOURS.
PROPERLY APPLYING THIS RESULTS IN ONLY NINE INTERIOR COUNTIES
MEETING THIS STRINGENT CRITERIA.  OPTED TO INCLUDE COUNTIES WHOSE
DURATION WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 5 HOURS AND THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHICH HAS TENDED TO COOL A FEW DEGREES
MORE THAN GUIDANCE IN SUCH COLD OUTBREAKS.  THIS RESULTS IN A HARD
FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES MISSISSIPPI WHERE THE
DURATION AT 26 OR BELOW WILL BE THREE TO FOUR HOURS OR LESS. /29

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MONDAY STARTS OFF WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA...WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ADVERTISING THIS SHORTWAVE
SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...SEEMINGLY GETTING SOME BRAKING ACTION FROM THE
SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING RETURN
FLOW SETTING UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO ELIMINATE ANY NEED FOR A HARD FREEZE WARNING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
IS ALSO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OP GFS GUIDANCE...SO
HAVENT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE MEX GUIDANCE MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY IS WHERE THINGS START TO DIVERGE. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLOWLY SWINGS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE US/MX BORDER. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
EAST AND ITS INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY
ADDITIONAL NORTHERLY SURGE FROM THE ENERGY NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY PUSH TO CREATE A POSSIBLE
WINTER WX SCENARIO OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FA TUESDAY
NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. IT DOESNT LOOK TO BE A
LOT...JUST ENOUGH TO CAUSE A FEW PROBLEMS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. AM GOING TO KEEP THE PRECIP CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THIS
PACKAGE...PREFERRING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS FOR A FEW MORE MODEL
RUNS. THIS SYSTEM LEAVES A SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR COMING WEATHER.

FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER...THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST BECOMES UNGLUED AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...PUSHING IT EAST. THESE SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE FOR A WET
PERIOD EARLY THURS THROUGH FRI...TAPING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...WITH
SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND PATH ERRORS ACCUMULATING THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY AND IS REINFORCED BY ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT THEN WINDS SUBSIDE ON
MONDAY.  THE OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
NEXT SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND GRADUALLY VEER TO AN
ONSHORE FLOW AND TEMPORARILY SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ON THURSDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SYSTEM
ADVANCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE LATTER FEATURE SENDS A
SURFACE LOW QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COASTAL STATES THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT WILL LEAVE FOR DAY SHIFT TO REASSESS. /29

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA INTO
MONDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH GETS PUSHED EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A MOIST PERIOD EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      54  23  52  31  57 /  05  05  05  10  20
PENSACOLA   55  27  49  33  56 /  05  05  05  10  10
DESTIN      57  32  50  34  56 /  05  05  05  10  10
EVERGREEN   48  20  52  27  54 /  05  05  05  10  20
WAYNESBORO  47  21  53  23  53 /  05  05  05  10  20
CAMDEN      45  22  51  26  52 /  00  05  00  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.

FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...COASTAL WALTON...INLAND ESCAMBIA...
     INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND
     SANTA ROSA.

MS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GREENE...PERRY...AND WAYNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

16/29

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