Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Melbourne, FL

000 
WWUS52 KMLB 102328
SVSMLB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
728 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

FLC095-097-110000-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-070711T0000Z/
OSCEOLA FL-ORANGE FL-
728 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR WESTERN ORANGE AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES...

AT 727 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR WINTER GARDEN...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
OAKLAND...OCOEE...FAIRVILLA...PINE HILLS...CROWN POINT...WINTER
PARK...FAIRVIEW SHORES...CLARCONA...EATONVILLE...LOCKHART...
MAITLAND...LAKE APOPKA AND PIEDMONT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 2861 8131 2866 8166 2835 8176 2817 8150

$$

67

000 
WWUS52 KMLB 102347
SVSMLB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
745 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

FLC095-097-102355-
/O.CAN.KMLB.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-070711T0000Z/
OSCEOLA FL-ORANGE FL-
745 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN ORANGE AND EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE SEVERE STORM
THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. AS A RESULT...THE WARNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES 
AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL THESE STORMS 
DISSIPATE.

LAT...LON 2861 8131 2866 8166 2835 8176 2817 8150

$$

67

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
325 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH SUPPRESSED ALOFT...STRONG HEATING THIS MORNING AND A POCKET
OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS ALLOWED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY BETWEEN
TIX-FPR. A FEW STORMS PRODUCED DOWNBURST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH IN
BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES. THE OUTFLOW FROM THIS CONVECTION HAS HELPED PUSH THE SEA
BREEZE INTO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES ALREADY AND CONVECTION IS
DIMINISHING NEAR THE COAST. THE SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS AS IT MOVES INLAND BUT DO
NOT EXPECT COVERAGE OR INTENSITY TO BE AS HIGH AS IT WAS ALONG THE
COAST EARLIER TODAY. THERE WILL BE A COLLISION WITH THE WEST COAST
BREEZE EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR LAKE COUNTY WHICH MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS. CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS (+9C @ H7 AND -6C @H5). BUT GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

WX PATTERN FOR THE FL PENINSULA WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE BERMUDA
RIDGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD MAINTAINS
MODERATE TO STRONG SUPPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ON WED
WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY TAPPING A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE SWRN
NORTH ATLC. STORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN AOB 30%.

THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST WILL BECOME QUITE
POTENT THRU BY 00Z THU AS H30-H20 JET STREAM OVER SRN CANADA BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED.  NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLASSIC
OMEGA BLOCK WITH A POSITIVE PNA PHASE.  AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...IT
WILL PUSH A FRONTAL TROF DOWN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WELL INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. EVEN SO...THE PARENT LOW OF THE FRONTAL TROF WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/HUDSON BAY REGION...TOO FAR TO THE N
TO PROVIDE THE NECESSARY TORQUE TO PULL THE FRONT S OF THE FL/GA
BORDER.

WHILE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE FL BORDER BY 12Z
FRI...IT SHOULD WEAKEN THE WRN EXTENSION OF THE ATLC RIDGE ENOUGH TO
COLLAPSE THE H85-H50 STEERING FLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL LIMIT THE INLAND PENETRATION OF THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEABREEZES...THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL OF ONE OF THE PRIMARY STORM
TRIGGERS FOR THIS TIME OF YEARS.  MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE
FRONTAL TROF WILL GENERATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS INTO THE WEEKEND...
BUT THE CONTINUING SUPPRESSION AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT COUPLED WITH
WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP COVERAGE BLO 50%.

AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ATLC RIDGE
AXIS WILL DRIFT BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...THEN NORTH OF
THE FL BORDER.  INCREASING E/SERLY FLOW WILL TEND TO CONCENTRATE
DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE W HALF OF THE PENINSULA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXCEPT BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE INVOF TSRA THRU 23Z AT
SFB/ORL/MCO/ISM/LEE.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL MEANDER BETWEEN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE S/SWRLY FLOW OVER THE NRN
LEG OF THE LCL ATLC WATERS...AND A S/SERLY FLOW OVER THE SRN LEG.
WINDS AOB 15KTS...SEAS AOB 3FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  90  76  90 /  20  40  20  40
MCO  76  93  75  93 /  20  40  20  40
MLB  76  90  74  88 /  10  30  10  30
VRB  76  90  75  89 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...KELLY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
447 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
102100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
447 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL AGAIN LEAD TO A LOW
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SOUTH
OF CAPE CANAVERAL AND GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND. THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OF STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS...POSSIBLY
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR...AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN HAZARD FROM STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE OCCASIONAL TO
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID
70S WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 THIS
AFTERNOON. THOUGH THIS IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING
THE SUMMER MONTHS...THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT SHOULD BE
AWARE OF THESE SLIGHTLY MORE UNCOMFORTABLE THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.
MAKE SURE YOU DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS IF EXERCISING OR WORKING
OUTDOORS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
STORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO
DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A RETURN TO AVERAGE
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

LASCODY