Red Flag Warning 54, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
311 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2007

.DISCUSSION...

...DRY WEATHER WTIH TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THIS
WEEK...

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY COOL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP
LAYER MEAN RIDGE OVERTOP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND FLOW. FULL
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO AROUND CLIMO VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGING IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE RAPID
DECOUPLING AFTER SUNSET RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS BY MIDNIGHT.
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW MORNING LOW TO DROP DOWN INTO THE
LOWER 50S COASTAL VOLUSIA...LOWER 50S AND UPPER 40S INTERIOR
COUNTIES. MID 50S COCOA MELBOURNE SOUTH AND SOME UPPER 50S JENSEN
BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.

MON-TUE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND OVER THE NORTH GULF
AND NORTH FLORIDA MON THEN SHIFT SOUTH TUE AND WEAKEN FURTHER AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS TUE NIGHT. POPS WILL BE NIL AS
PRE FRONTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS AROUND ONE HALF INCH. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND
FROM EARLY MORNING BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN THE 50S TO AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED-SAT...TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. PULLING COOL AIR DOWN OUT
OF CANADA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW MAINTAINED
ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STAY TO OUR
NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKED TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST UNTIL ABOUT SAT. THEREFORE...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
THIS LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY SHOULD ALSO KEEP IT DRY DUE TO NO
APPRECIABLE ONSHORE COMPONENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD...11 TO 14 SECONDS...6 TO 8 FOOT NORTH
NORTHEAST SWELL SLOWLY SUBSIDES TODAY. BUOYS JUST EAST OF PORT
CANAVERAL AND FORT PIERCE INLET RECORDING 2 TO 3 FOOT SWELLS AND 4
TO 5 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 6 NM. MODERATE TO LARGE NORTH NORTHEAST
SWELLS WILL STILL MAKE THE GULF STREAM AND WATERS WEST OF IT
ROUGH.

MON-TUE...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKENING BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW ON MON TO PRODUCE AN ADVISORY FOR SEAS IN
THE GULF STREAM. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ON TUE AND SEA
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER...WITH PRIMARY COMPONENT FROM SWELLS.

WED-THU...POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY WIND SURGE SHOULD PRODUCE ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WED WHICH MAY LINGER INTO THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR MASS HAS HAD SOME TIME TO MODIFY THE EXISTING
AIR MASS AND THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF 4 OR MORE HOURS
OF RHS BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL INTERIOR COUNTIES AND
COASTAL VOLUSIA AS DRIER AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MIXES DOWN
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL LOWER DEW POINTS MORE THAN
FORECAST. WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH SHOULD PULL MARINE AIR MASS
DOWN THE COASTAL COUNTIES EFFECTIVELY HALTING MUCH DEW POINT DROP
THIS AFTERNOON.

MON...HAVE RAISED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE NORTH HALF OF THE
INTERIOR SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN DRY AIR
MASS AND LATEST MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT.
DID NOT INCLUDE THE COAST BECAUSE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  49  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  78  52  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  79  52  78  57 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  80  53  79  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
     ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR INLAND VOLUSIA-
     NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA
     BEACH OUT 20 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM....LASCODY