Red Flag Warning 51, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
235 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...

...BENEFICIAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL CONTINUE MDT
ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE ATLC KEEPING MINIMUM TEMPS MILD FROM
BREVARD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST NEAR 70 TO THE LWR 70S. LOWS IN
THE MID-UPR 60S ACROSS INTERIOR AND NRN AREAS. FCST MODELS INDICATE
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD WITH PREVALENT
CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNRISE.

THU...FLOW WILL REMAIN ONSHORE WITH SFC HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA WITH
A DRY LAYER BETWEEN H7-H5. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE WRN
GULF AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE UPPER LEVEL DIVG/DIFFLUENCE OVER
THE STATE LEADING TO A CONSIDERABLE THICK LAYER OF CIRRUS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE SW. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN
THE GRIDDED FCSTS WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING A DEEP SATURATED LAYER
ABOVE H5. ONE MORE DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S.

THU NIGHT-SAT...SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS THE
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BREAKS DOWN THU NIGHT-FRI.
MEANWHILE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL DRAW
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE STATE...ULTIMATELY RESULTING
IN INCREASING RAIN CHANGES LATE THIS WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
NAM-WRF SUGGESTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS IN THE
GFS INDICATE THAT A TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST IS MORE
LIKELY. THIS WOULD KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR
SOUTH...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FRI AND SAT AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. IT WOULD NOT BE
FAIR TO TOTALLY RULE OUT A WETTER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT AS DEPICTED
BY HPC AND THE ECMWF...WHICH TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND
NORTHEASTWARD UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS NATURE OF
THE PATTERN ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT THE EVENT IS STILL A FEW DAYS
OUT...PLAN AT THIS POINT IS TO ONLY NUDGE POPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SUN-WED...DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC. BROAD TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL FINALLY PRODUCE AN OFFSHORE FLOW
ACROSS THE STATE. OFFSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH THE STRONG JUNE SUN
WILL PRODUCE ABOVE AVERAGE MAX TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE
90S...WHICH HAS NOT OCCURRED SINCE APRIL. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAGGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER POPS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP ONSHORE WINDS
NEAR 15 KNOTS AND 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS SRN OFFSHORE LEG WITH NOCTURNAL
WIND INCREASE. EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KT NORTH AND
AROUND 15 KNOTS SRN LEG ON THU. SEAS MAINLY 4-5 FT IN AN EAST SWELL.
WILL RAISE SCEC FOR THE SRN OFFSHORE LEG OVERNIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRI-SAT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN
RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE STATE. VEERING FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RHS SHOULD DROP TO BETWEEN 35-40 PCT ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTION BUT HIGH TEMPS MAY BE HELD DOWN A DEG OR TWO FROM
GUID WITH UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  84  69  83 /   0   0  10  20
MCO  66  87  69  86 /   0   0  10  20
MLB  69  83  72  84 /   0  10  10  30
VRB  69  83  71  83 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....HIRSCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
422 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2007

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
302000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
422 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THERE WERE NUMEROUS RIP CURRENT RELATED RESCUES AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
WHILE SURF CONDITIONS MAY APPEAR INVITING TODAY...A LONG PERIOD OCEAN
SWELL CONTINUES AND WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT DANGER. IF PLANNING A
TRIP TO THE BEACH...ONLY SWIM AT A LIFEGUARD PROTECTED BEACH. TAKE
THE ADVICE OF THE LOCAL BEACH PATROL AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH 10 TO 15 MPH WINDS AND DRY
VEGETATION WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF
NEW OR EXISTING FIRES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AN ELEVATED RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL INCREASE HEADING
INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND DRIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

GLITTO