Winter Storm Watch 1, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1018 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

.UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH VALID FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY FOR ENTIRE CWA. CURRENT PRESENT WEATHER TRENDS WITH STORM
SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL US...12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...AND EVALUATIONS
OF 12Z RUC/NGM/NAM MODELS SHOW MANY FACTORS NOW COMING INTO FOCUS
FOR A DECENT WINTER STORM FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. AMONG NEW TRENDS
IS A TREND TOWARD A DEEPER SURFACE LOW WITH A TRACK MOVEMENT MORE
NORTHWEST OF PREVIOUS POSITIONS...STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF 925
MILLIBAR AND 850 MILLIBAR LOW WITH TRACK OVER SWEET SPOT FROM
EASTERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHWEST INDIANA...AND INFLUX OF MORE
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1 INCH OVER
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF STATE. A STRONGER JET IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
IMPRESSIVE 250/300 MILLIBAR DIVERGENCE BULLSEYE OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN CENTERED AT 06Z MONDAY. QUICK EVALUATION OF BUFKIT DATA
SHOWS LAKE CONTRIBUTION AND SOME INSTABILITY TO HELP ENHANCE SNOW
AMOUNTS ALONG LAKE SHORE AREAS. WILL AWAIT 12Z GFS AND WATCH
CURRENT WEATHER TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER
TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007/

DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WEATHER EVENT TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...AS
FAR AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE CONCERNED. THE SURFACE
SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...THE H850 BAROCLINIC ZONE IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH WEAK SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS WILL BE IN THE MID LEVELS WITH A
PERIOD OF STRONG OMEGA CENTERED AROUND 06Z MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME PERSISTENT MODERATE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BETWEEN H850 AND
H700. THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THETA-E RIDGING...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE SOME H500 DIVERGENCE.

THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE NEARLY
ISOTHERMAL...RANGING FROM AROUND -5 TO -10 FROM THE SURFACE TO
AROUND 12K FEET. BUFFY IS INDICATING THAT NO ICE CRYSTALS WILL BE
PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS...AND TO CONSIDER FREEZING DRIZZLE. COBB
WATER/SNOW RATIO IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 9:1 OVERNIGHT. HPC..GFS
AND WRF 12 HOUR QPF ARE GENERALLY IDENTICAL...THE NAM IS A BIT
HIGHER. USING A 13:1 PESSIMISTIC RATIO...I CAN ONLY GET AROUND 3
INCHES OVERNIGHT...AND ONLY 1 INCH OR SO MONDAY MORNING. I WILL
HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SITUATION WILL DEVELOP.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058-
WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-
WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072.

&&

ZAJDEL/FOWLE

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