Special Marine Warning 2, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
319 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON EVENING SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...
APPROACHING UPPER LOW FOR THE WEEKEND...AND STORM SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEK.

.VERY SHORT TERM...IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO ROLL THROUGH
CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. BULK OF CONVECTION TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN WAKE OF
CONVECTION BUT SHOULD NOT BE DENSE DUE TO DECENT WINDS IN LOW
LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE.

.SHORT TERM...SMALL BREAK IN CONVECTIVE ACTION EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW SYSTEM OVER DAKOTAS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE INTO
MINNESOTA SATURDAY. EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE WITH CONVECTION
INCREASING DURING HEAT OF THE DAY IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER
CWA. WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS
NGM/GFS/NAM PROGS ADVECTING DECENT 500 MILLIBAR VORTICITY ITO
REGION AS MAIN TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...EARLIER DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN NAM AND GFS PROGS WITH
HANDLING OF LOCATION OF UPPER LOW HAS NARROWED FOR SUNDAY WITH GFS
JUST A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH EASTERLY MOVEMENT THROUGH CWA THAN
NAM. WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE NOW IN HANDLING OF UPPER LOW TRACK
WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN OVER 1 INCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SO SOME
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY WITH STRONGER STORMS
DUE TO SLUGGISH MOVEMENT OF LOW. LEANED TOWARD 3 HOURLY TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND MOIST AIRMASS.

.LONG LONG TERM...FOR THIRD DAY IN A ROW GFS/ECMWF/DGEX PROGS
POINTING TO STRONG STORM SYSTEM FOR REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HAVE PUSHED UP RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARY CONCERN IS TIMING OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NEWD ACROSS SRN WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU EARLY TONIGHT.
EXTRAPOLATING CURRENT RADAR TRENDS PLACES THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR KMSN BY 21Z AND INTO KMKE BETWEEN 23Z-00Z.
FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR A TIME AS THUNDERSTORMS ROLE
THRU WITH EVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LIFR OR VLIFR CONDITIONS.
AT THIS TIME THINK THE LINE WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH
-TSRA/SHRA DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z. AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN...HOWEVER WITH STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
VSBYS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 1-3SM RANGE.  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY APPROACHES WI.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

ZAJDEL/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-020945-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM FOND DU LAC TO OCONOMOWOC TO LAKE
GENEVA. THE THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

IN ADDITION...RAPID HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH IN A
SHORT DURATION WILL RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER AND POSSIBLY SOME
MINOR STREET FLOODING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY CARRY OVER INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE WISCONSIN OF DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES HAS ISSUED AN AIR
QUALITY WATCH FOR TODAY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY DUE
TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS...THAT
SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS ON SATURDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LMZ643>646-665-020945-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY DUE
TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS...THAT
SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS ON SATURDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

TZ/MBK/MAF

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

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