Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
251 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE WEATHER EARLY THIS EVENING
AND EVOLUTION INTO COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM...PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMED AHEAD OF
CONVECTION ALONG STRONG COLD FRONT IN LINE WITH WRF PROG EXPECTED
TO EXIT CWA BY 02Z TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...NAM/GFS/ECMWF PROGS THEN IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY CANADA. WEATHER PATTERN
BECOMES STUCK INTO WEEKEND AS MIDDLE AND UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL OVER CWA. PROGS HAVING CONTINUED DIFFICULTY WITH STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF SHORT WAVES ONCE THIS NORTHWEST FLOW IS ESTABLISHED.
AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER CWA
WHEN IT APPEARS PROGS ARE CLOSEST IN ARRIVAL TIME. OVERALL THE
STRETCH OF WEATHER EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF TIME WILL BE DRY WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER REGION THROUGH 02Z. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
AHEAD OF FRONT BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CIGS 3-5 THOUSAND WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 02Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

ZAJDEL/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
437 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-110945-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
437 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

LMZ643>646-665-110945-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
437 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
SOUTH WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...VEERING TO THE WEST
THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF
AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN
ISOLATED WATERSPOUT IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

HENTZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
212 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     TSTM WND GST     SHEBOYGAN               43.75N 87.73W
07/10/2007  M42 MPH          SHEBOYGAN          WI   MESONET

            GUST TO 42 MPH AT NORTH HIGH SCHOOL.

&&

BB/AJL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
236 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-102145-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...BERLIN...FOND DU LAC...
SHEBOYGAN...BARABOO...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...BEAVER DAM...
WEST BEND...PORT WASHINGTON...DODGEVILLE...MADISON...JEFFERSON...
LAKE MILLS...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...DARLINGTON...
MONROE...JANESVILLE...BELOIT...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...
KENOSHA
236 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT...

AT 235 PM DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED TWO LINES OF STORMS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

ONE LINE OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR BELOIT TO WATERTOWN TO
DELAFIELD TO PORT WASHINGTON. THIS LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH AND WILL EXTEND FROM DELAVAN TO EAST TROY TO WEST ALLIS
TO FOX POINT TO BAYSIDE BY 3 PM.

GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 45 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE- HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...BRIEF HEAVY RAINS...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY
WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. PONDING OF WATER ON SOME CITY STREETS IS
POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR MOUNT HOREB TO PORTAGE
TO BERLIN. THESE STORMS SHOULD REACH A MADISON TO COLUMBUS TO
RIPON LINE BY 3 PM.

ANY OF THE STORMS CAN BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

KAPELA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
302 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-102215-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...BERLIN...FOND DU LAC...
SHEBOYGAN...BARABOO...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...BEAVER DAM...
WEST BEND...PORT WASHINGTON...DODGEVILLE...MADISON...JEFFERSON...
LAKE MILLS...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...DARLINGTON...
MONROE...JANESVILLE...BELOIT...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...
KENOSHA
302 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT...

AT 3 PM DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED TWO LINES OF STORMS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

ONE NEARLY SOLID LINE OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR CLINTON TO
EAST TROY TO NEW BERLIN TO BAYSIDE. THIS LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH AND WILL EXTEND FROM LAKE GENEVA TO BURLINGTON TO
MILWAUKEE BY 330 PM.

GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 45 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...BRIEF HEAVY RAINS...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY
WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. PONDING OF WATER ON SOME CITY STREETS IS
POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER LINE OF SCATTERED STORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR DARLINGTON TO
DEFOREST TO RIPON. THESE STORMS SHOULD REACH A SOUTH WAYNE TO
MADISON TO BEAVER DAM TO FOND DU LAC LINE BY 330 PM.

ANY OF THE STORMS CAN BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

KAPELA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-102230-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...BERLIN...FOND DU LAC...
SHEBOYGAN...BARABOO...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...BEAVER DAM...
WEST BEND...PORT WASHINGTON...DODGEVILLE...MADISON...JEFFERSON...
LAKE MILLS...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...DARLINGTON...
MONROE...JANESVILLE...BELOIT...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...
KENOSHA
330 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR MARQUETTE...GREEN
LAKE...SAUK...IOWA...AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES...

AT 330 PM DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED TWO BROKEN LINES OF STORMS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

ONE LINE OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR MILWAUKEE...TO BOHNERS
LAKE...TO LAKE GENEVA. THIS LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH
AND WILL EXTEND FROM RACINE TO KENOSHA BY 400 PM.

ANOTHER LINE OF SCATTERED STORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR FOND DU LAC...TO
BEAVER DAM...TO PINE BLUFF. THESE STORMS SHOULD REACH A DUNDEE...TO
WATERTOWN...TO LAKE RIPLEY LINE BY 400 PM.

GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 45 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...BRIEF HEAVY RAINS...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY
WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. PONDING OF WATER ON SOME CITY STREETS IS
POSSIBLE.

ANY OF THE STORMS CAN BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

BORGHOFF/LAMERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-102230-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...BERLIN...FOND DU LAC...
SHEBOYGAN...BARABOO...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...BEAVER DAM...
WEST BEND...PORT WASHINGTON...DODGEVILLE...MADISON...JEFFERSON...
LAKE MILLS...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...DARLINGTON...
MONROE...JANESVILLE...BELOIT...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...
KENOSHA
330 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR MARQUETTE...GREEN
LAKE...SAUK...IOWA...DANE...LAFAYETTE...AND GREEN COUNTIES...

AT 330 PM DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED TWO BROKEN LINES OF STORMS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

ONE LINE OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR MILWAUKEE...TO BOHNERS
LAKE...TO LAKE GENEVA. THIS LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH
AND WILL EXTEND FROM RACINE TO KENOSHA BY 400 PM.

ANOTHER LINE OF SCATTERED STORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR FOND DU LAC...TO
BEAVER DAM...TO PINE BLUFF. THESE STORMS SHOULD REACH A DUNDEE...TO
WATERTOWN...TO LAKE RIPLEY LINE BY 400 PM.

GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 45 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...BRIEF HEAVY RAINS...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY
WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. PONDING OF WATER ON SOME CITY STREETS IS
POSSIBLE.

ANY OF THE STORMS CAN BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

BORGHOFF/LAMERS
UPDATED FOR CANCELLED COUNTIES

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