Alert archive / Wisconsin / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Milwaukee, WI

March 21, 2007Milwaukee County, Wisconsin

NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 21, 2007, 8:01 PM CDT for Milwaukee County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 29 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Mar 21, 2007, 8:01 PM CDT (01:01 UTC)
Expired: Mar 21, 2007, 8:30 PM CDT
In force: 29 min
Issued by: NWS Milwaukee, WI
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Milwaukee County, WI

The radar

The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 54 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Mar 21, 8:13 PM CDT	HAIL 0.88	Brown Deer, WI	MEASURED PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND IN BROWN DEER.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 1.0 hours before the alert went out and 152 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -395 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 722 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 187 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 237 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KMKX 220101
SVRMKX
WIC079-220130-
/O.NEW.KMKX.SV.W.0006.070322T0101Z-070322T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
801 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEAR SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN MILWAUKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 757 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.  THIS
  STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF WAUWATOSA...OR ABOUT NEAR
  BROOKFIELD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RIVER HILLS...BROWN DEER...GLENDALE AND WHITEFISH BAY BY 810 PM
  CDT...
  BAYSIDE AND FOX POINT BY 815 PM CDT...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK 
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 4305 8787 4302 8806 4319 8805 4319 8790
      4320 8789 4319 8787 4313 8789 4309 8786
      4306 8786

$$

REM

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 220115
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
813 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007

WIC079-220130-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-070322T0130Z/
MILWAUKEE-
813 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN MILWAUKEE COUNTY...

AT 810 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BROWN DEER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

AT 809 PM CDT...A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 3/4 INCH HAIL 2 MILES 
NORTH OF BUTLER IN WAUKESHA COUNTY NEAR THE MILWAUKEE COUNTY BORDER.

LAT...LON 4305 8787 4302 8806 4319 8805 4319 8790
      4320 8789 4319 8787 4313 8789 4309 8786
      4306 8786

$$

REM

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 220136
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
837 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007

WIC079-220147-
/O.EXP.KMKX.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-070322T0130Z/
MILWAUKEE-
837 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN MILWAUKEE COUNTY
EXPIRED AT 830 PM CDT...

LAT...LON 4305 8787 4302 8806 4319 8805 4319 8790
      4320 8789 4319 8787 4313 8789 4309 8786
      4306 8786

$$

REM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 21, 3:25 PM CDT, 4 hours 36 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 21, 3:25 PM CDT, 4 hours 36 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM EMPHASIS ON PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FIRST 12
HOURS WITH FOCUS SHIFTING TO THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATER IN
PERIOD.  SECOND WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PRODUCING MORE VIGOROUS
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS ATTM.
EXPECT SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  THEN
BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION BEFORE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
CONVECTION BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.

FREEZING LEVEL ON THE LOW SIDE...AROUND 10K FEET...AND MORE VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS LIKELY TO PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL.  CONVECTION STILL
ELEVATED...AND WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY
LINGERS INTO THE EVENING.  LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
SO CAUTION ADVISED INTO THE EVENING.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
IMMEDIATE WAKE OF COLD FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY ALLOW BRIEF PERIOD OF
30 TO 35 KNOT GUSTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  3 HOUR
PRESSURE RISE OF 5MB.  FORTUNATELY...2K FT INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO SURFACE.

QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BTWN GFS AND NAM-WRF IN LOCATION OF
BAROCLINIC ZONE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  LATEST GFS SOLUTION WAFFLES
BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH...WHICH IS IN CONTRAST TO THE PREVIOUS GFS
RUNS...HOWEVER CANADIAN MODEL ALSO SHOWING THIS SOLUTION.  NAM-WRF
KEEPS BAROCLINIC ZONE FARTHER SOUTH IN CENTRAL IL/NORTHERN MO.
SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORING DRIER SOLUTION FOR
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SO FOR THE MOMENT WL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY BUT HANG ONTO SCHC WORDING DURING THE NIGHT.

FOR EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED
GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM
SOUTHWEST CONUS EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN
PLAINS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  PRIOR TO EJECTION...BAROCLINIC
ZONE REMAINS ACTIVE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WISCONSIN.  WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION BRUSHING SRN PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE PERCENTAGE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION VALUES INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT LARGER VALUES HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY MORNING AS WEAKENING SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIFFER IN
AMPLITUDE AND SPECIFIC TIMING OF WAVE...BUT MOST MEMBERS INDICATE
TROUGH MOVING THRU DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
RETURN FOR TUESDAY BUT APPEARS BENIGN WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
BRIEF AS BOTH LONG RANGE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW UPSTREAM POTENT SHORT
WAVE POISED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

GFS 500HPA 5DAY MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW ZONAL FLOW WITH ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS THROUGH FIRST DAYS OF FORECAST PACKAGE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST AS UPSTREAM LONG WAVE TROUGHING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY CENTERED
AT 00Z/28.  HENCE APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE MONTH WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO CENTRAL WI HAS
ALLOWED WINDS TO TURN SOUTHERLY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE.
CIGS/VSBYS BEHIND WARM FRONT GNERLLY IN THE IFR RANGE...ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE SOME OCCNL LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.  EXPECT INITIAL AREA
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO MOVE THROUGH SRN WI LATE THIS AFTN...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT TO AFFECT TAF
SITES BETWEEN 05Z AT 13Z. EXPECT SHARPLY REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS WITH ANY
TSTM ACTIVITY. COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY 18Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

MBK/MAF

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 21, 6:54 PM CDT, 1 hour 7 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
654 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-230000-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
654 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
UP TO 1 INCH...HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS
EVENING...AND SPREAD EAST INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS
WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL HEAVY DOWNPOURS
OF RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

LMZ643>646-665-230000-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
654 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN
AND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

REM

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 21, 6:41 PM CDT, 1 hour 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
641 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     HAIL             1 SW EDGERTON           42.83N 89.09W
03/21/2007  M1.00 INCH       ROCK               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED 1.00 INCH DIAMETER HAIL ON SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
            EDGERTON. SOME ESTIMATED 1 1/4 INCH DIAMETER HAIL ALSO
            SEEN.

0625 PM     HAIL             1 S FORT ATKINSON       42.91N 88.84W
03/21/2007  M0.50 INCH       JEFFERSON          WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MEASURED DIME SIZE HAIL JUST SOUTH OF FORT ATKINSON.

0630 PM     HAIL             2 N EVANSVILLE          42.81N 89.30W
03/21/2007  E0.88 INCH       ROCK               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ESTIMATED DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL 2 MILES NORTH OF
            EVANSVILLE.

&&

WOOD

Local storm report, Mar 21, 7:23 PM CDT, 38 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
723 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     HAIL             4 S CLYMAN              43.25N 88.72W
03/21/2007  M1.00 INCH       DODGE              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED 1.00 INCH DIAMETER HAIL 4 MILES SOUTH OF CLYMAN.

0710 PM     HAIL             4 S CLYMAN              43.25N 88.72W
03/21/2007  M0.75 INCH       DODGE              WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            MEASURED 3/4 INCH DIAMETER HAIL 4 MILES SOUTH OF CLYMAN.

0712 PM     HAIL             1 S JEFFERSON           42.99N 88.81W
03/21/2007  M0.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          WI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MEASURED PENNY SIZE HAIL ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF JEFFERSON.

&&

WOOD

Local storm report, Mar 21, 7:29 PM CDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
729 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     HAIL             3 SE HUSTISFORD         43.31N 88.56W
03/21/2007  M0.75 INCH       DODGE              WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            MEASURED 3/4 INCH DIAMETER HAIL 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
            HUSTISFORD.

&&

WOOD

Local storm report, Mar 21, 7:53 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
753 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     HAIL             1 W OCONOMOWOC          43.10N 88.52W
03/21/2007  E0.75 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MEASURED 3/4 INCH DIAMETER HAIL 1 MILE WEST OF
            OCONOMOWOC.

0735 PM     HAIL             5 N OCONOMOWOC          43.18N 88.50W
03/21/2007  M0.75 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MEASURED 3/4 INCH DIAMETER HAIL 5 MILES NORTH OF
            OCONOMOWOC.

&&

WOOD

Local storm report, Mar 21, 7:55 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
755 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0746 PM     HAIL             OCONOMOWOC              43.10N 88.50W
03/21/2007  M1.00 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   PUBLIC

            MEASURED 1.00 INCH DIAMETER HAIL IN OCONOMOWOC.

&&

WOOD

Local storm report, Mar 21, 7:58 PM CDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
758 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 PM     HAIL             1 SW PEWAUKEE           43.08N 88.27W
03/21/2007  M0.75 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED 3/4 INCH DIAMETER HAIL 1 MILE SOUTHWEST OF
            PEWAUKEE.

&&

WOOD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Milwaukee, WI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 21, 7:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Dodge	40 min
Mar 21, 7:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Waukesha	26 min
Mar 21, 8:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Ozaukee	25 min
Mar 21, 8:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Kenosha, Racine	30 min
Mar 21, 10:12 PM CDT	River Flood Watch	MKX	Green, Rock	19 hr
Mar 21, 10:12 PM CDT	River Flood Watch	MKX	Racine	24 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Wisconsin, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.