Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Milwaukee, WI

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 182112
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
409 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

WIC059-101-182130-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-070618T2130Z/
RACINE-KENOSHA-
409 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN KENOSHA AND EASTERN RACINE COUNTIES...

AT 406 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR STURTEVANT...OR ABOUT NEAR UNION GROVE...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FRANKSVILLE AND ELMWOOD PARK BY 415 PM CDT...
  CALEDONIA...WIND POINT...NORTH BAY AND RACINE BY 420 PM CDT...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. AT 
APPROXIMATELY 4 PM...LAW ENFOREMENT REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES DOWN 
NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY K AND HIGHWAY 45 NEAR THE CITY OF 
SALEM. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM 
WINDOWS

LAT...LON 4259 8808 4255 8796 4268 8779 4284 8774
      4284 8798

$$

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 182122
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
419 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

WIC059-101-182130-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-070618T2130Z/
RACINE-KENOSHA-
419 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN KENOSHA AND EASTERN RACINE COUNTIES...

AT 415 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS 
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FRANKSVILLE...AND STURTEVANT...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL NORTHEASTERN RACINE COUNTY AT 430 PM CDT

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. AT 415 
PM...AT LEAST 6 POWER POLES WERE REPORTED DOWN 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF 
STURTEVANT...WITH ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS NEAR 70 MPH. DAMAGING HAIL TO 
THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A 
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 4259 8808 4255 8796 4268 8779 4284 8774
      4284 8798

$$

FOWLE

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 182133
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
430 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

WIC059-101-182140-
/O.EXP.KMKX.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-070618T2130Z/
RACINE-KENOSHA-
430 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN KENOSHA AND 
EASTERN RACINE COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 430 PM CDT.

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF 
RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS 
TO 40 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF RACINE 
COUNTY THROUGH 445 PM. 

LAT...LON 4259 8808 4255 8796 4268 8779 4284 8774
      4284 8798

$$

FOWLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
247 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

FORECAST FOCUS ON ONGOING CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA CANADA...WITH ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF JET STREAK COMBINING WITH BEST DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION TO PRODUCE LINEAR CONVECTION ALONG SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL IOWA. OTHER
CONVECTION ALSO INITIATING IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER
ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AHEAD OF WEAK VORTICITY
MAXIMUM.

.TONIGHT...

SHORT TERM MODELS BRING COLD FRONT ACROSS FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...EXITING THE FAR EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. LOCAL HIGH
RESOLUTION WRF/NAM AND WRF/GFS DATA DEPICTING LINEAR CONVECTION
ALONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY 01Z
TUESDAY. THE 3KM WRF/ARW MODEL DELAYS THE CONVECTION WITH THE
FRONT UNTIL AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. THESE MODELS DO SHOW ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONTAL CONVECTION.

ENVIRONMENT SEEMS BEST SUITED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
MEAN LAYER CAPES OF 800 TO 1000 J/KG EXPECTED...MAINLY IN A TALL
SKINNY FASHION. MODEST 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS FAVORS MULTICELL STRUCTURES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES ILLUSTRATE A VERY MOIST AIRMASS. MESO BETA
ELEMENTS PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SLOW PROPAGATION
OF MULTICELLS LIKELY...AND POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING CELLS.
THESE CELLS WOULD HAVE TRAINING POTENTIAL...GIVEN STORM MOTIONS
PARALLEL TO FRONT...AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE AREA HAS BEEN RELATIVELY
DRY LATELY...MAJORITY OF RAINFALL WOULD BE WELCOME. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR ONE HOUR IN 2.50 TO 3.00 INCH RANGE...SO NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLOODING. RUNOFF IN URBAN AREAS WOULD BE THE
MOST VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. SO...WILL JUST MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL
IN ZONES FOR TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIRMASS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY.
VORTICITY MAXIMUM PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
MAY BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. 12Z
NAM/WRF INDICATING POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTHWEST OF
WISCONSIN. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS EVOLUTION...AS DOES HPC
BLENDED FIELDS. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN EVOLUTION OF
SMALLER SCALE FEATURES BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. MAIN ISSUE IS
THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS AND MREF DO NOT
SHOW THIS FEATURE NEARLY AS WELL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES
INVOLVED...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

DEPENDING ON HOW SURFACE AND UPPER AIR FEATURES ALIGN ACROSS THE
REGION...COULD SEE SOME MCS DEVELOPMENT TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AT TIMES LATER IN THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE USUAL
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODELS AND THE GENERAL RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAVE LATTER PORTION OF THIS PERIOD DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE CONVECTION THRU THE NIGHT. WHILE
SCT CONVECTION ONGOING IN THE MOIST AND UNSTBL AMS...KEYING ON
THE ONGOING LINE OF FRONTAL FORCING STORMS BETWEEN 1 AND 7Z.
EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR CIGS WITH STORMS...HOWEVER SOME IFR CIGS
PSBL GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
DURG THE EVENING HOURS. COLUMN PROGGD TO DRY OUT PRETTY QUICK
LATER TNGT AND WITH THE ONSET OF MIXING...WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
TO 15-25 KNOTS DURG THE MRNG.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

WOOD/COLLAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
401 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-190900-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
401 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS EVENING....AND EXIT THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OVER
MOST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT. SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.

AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR PERSONS IN
WAUKESHA...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES.

AN AIR QUALITY WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PERSONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

LMZ643>646-665-190900-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
401 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS EVENING....AND EXIT THE LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO BRISK SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
INCREASING WAVES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY
WEST WINDS.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

HENTZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
346 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

WIZ071-072-182200-
RACINE-KENOSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RACINE...KENOSHA
346 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES...

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF MC HENRY
COUNTY AND LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS WILL MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF KENOSHA COUNTY AFTER 345 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS
SHOULD REACH THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR AROUND 4 PM BEFORE MOVING
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF RACINE COUNTY BETWEEN 415 AND 430
PM.

EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME DAMAGE TO SMALL BRANCHES OR TREE
LIMBS. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. CITIES
LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED INCLUDE TWIN LAKES...BRISTOL...KENOSHA...STURTEVANT...AND
RACINE.

FOWLE