River Flood Watch 10, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
253 AM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS THIS
RUN AS FAR AS QPF PATTERN IS CONCERNED. ALL MODELS AND HPC HAVE
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TO A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING ALONG THE SURFACE
AND H850 BAROCLINIC ZONE. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW. I
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF GFS...NAM AND HPC QPF SOLUTIONS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE GFS KEEPS THE H850 BAROCLINIC AREA FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA
AND PRODUCES PERIODS OF VERY STRONG ISENT LIFT. CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME IN THE CWA APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
OVERRUNNING SINCE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS
WOULD TEND TO FAVOR GFS H850 POSITION. HPC AND NAM KEEPS THE
HEAVIEST QPF SOUTH OF WISCONSIN AS THIS WOULD FIT IN WITH CURRENT
REAL TIME TRENDS. I THINK A BLEND BETWEEN THE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
MIGHT BE THE BEST FIT.

IN ANY CASE...MOS POPS ARE VERY HIGH WITH BOTH MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. I WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM MOS POPS.

THE WEEKEND AND ALSO MONDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK QUIET WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MID LEVELS EXPECTED TO
BE VERY DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME RELIEF IN DEW POINTS WITH PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS WILL KEEP EXTENSIVE IFR CEILING CONDITIONS AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG/TSTMS ACROSS REGION FOR MUCH OF TODAY. LOCAL
VLIFR IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN FOG EXPECTED THRU 15Z
ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF THIN CLOUD COVER. ACTIVE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS IA/IL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES PROPAGATE ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WIZ056>060-
062>072.

&&

35/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1100 AM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-250930-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
1100 AM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS NOW
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. BUT RAINFALL REPORTS
WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

LMZ643>646-665-250930-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
1100 AM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AS
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...WAVES MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

MAF
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX