Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS SQUARELY ON HEAVY RAINFALL AND OVERALL
RATHER ACTIVE WX PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

00Z H8 ANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWED TIGHT H8 THERMAL RIBBON COLOCATED
WITH TIGHT ISODROSOTHERM GRADIENT ACRS SW WI. IMPRESSIVE 35-40KT
LLJ PLOWING INTO THIS HELPING TO INDUCE SIGGY LIFT AND MAXIMIZE WAA
AND MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED GRADIENTS.
IR SHOWING -70C COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWING A GOOD
SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIN.
16-18C DEW POINTS AT H8 ASSOC WITH THIS MOISTURE SURGE. 310K
ISENTROPIC PLOTS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH STG PRES ADVECTION AND MIXING
RATIOS OF UP TO 10 G/KG. DIVERGENCE ASSOC WITH ALONG STREAM SHEAR OF
UPPER LEVEL JET HELPING TO MAINTAIN DEEP COLUMN LIFT. COLDEST TOPS
IN 5-7Z TIME FRAME BUT TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT NOW.

NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE THROUGH TNGT WITH H8 BARO ZONE VCNTY OF SRN
WI. 925-850 THETA ADV MAGNITUDE...WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG
AS THIS MRNG...IS STILL PROGGD TO BE SUSTAINED INTO AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING. UPPER LEVEL JET BECOMES ZONAL DURG PD AND MODELS GENERATE
AREAS OF DVRG...THO GFS SHOWING FEEDBACK POS/NEG VORT BOMB COUPLET
COME 12Z MONDAY WHICH IS THROWING H7 VV/UPR DVRG AND QPF FIELD ALL
OUT OF WHACK. THE NAM AND CANADIAN KEEP HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GOING
ACRS CWA TNGT WHILE THE GFS/LOCAL WRF AND HPC DIRECTING QPF MAX
SOUTH OF HERE. HPC IS POINTING TOWARDS THE MOISTURE OF ERIN BEING
MORE DIRECTED INTO OH VLY AND KEEPING HIGHEST QPF TNGT SOUTH OF
HERE. HAD CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE WATCH ALL THE WAY THROUGH
TNGT...BUT STRUCK A COMPROMISE WITH HPC THOUGHTS/AFOREMENTIONED
MODEL TRENDS AND THE ONGOING NATURE OF CURRENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT AND
WILL EXTEND WATCH UNTIL 00Z FOR NOW.

WRF20 AND NAM INDICATING BULK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SOUTH
OF HERE BY MON AFTN...BUT WILL STILL CARRY LIKELY FOR SRN CWA MON.

SURGE OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR EXPECTED FOR TUE AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE FOR TUE NGT AND WED WHICH WILL BRING A ROUND OF TSTORMS
WITH IT.

&&
10

.AVIATION...XPCT WDSPRD MVFR CONDS IN -RA/-TSRA/BR THRU 00Z MON.
AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPCTD IN PDS OF HVY RA/TSRA INTO 18Z MON.
STNRY FNT ACRS IA AND NRN IL THRU PD WITH MSTR LIFTING OVR FNT INTO
SRN WI.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ056>058-062>072.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
445 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-201000-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
445 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING UNTIL 6 PM SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE DELTON TO BEAVER DAM
TO BAYSIDE IN MILWAUKEE COUNTY DUE TO HEAVY RAINS ON TOP OF
SATURATED GROUND. THE MOST FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL BE WHERE THE
TERRAIN IS HILLY OR BUILT-UP URBAN LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...BUT RAINFALL REPORTS WOULD
BE APPRECIATED.

LMZ643>646-665-201000-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
445 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT DUE TO PERISTENT EAST WINDS GENERATING WAVES OF 3
TO 5 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

KAPELA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
830 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE VERONA             42.98N 89.52W
08/19/2007  M5.59 INCH       DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED 5.59 INCHES 1 MILE SOUTHEAST OF VERONA.

0245 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 WNW LAKE MILLS        43.10N 88.98W
08/19/2007  M5.23 INCH       JEFFERSON          WI   PUBLIC

            MEASURED 5.23 INCHES 4 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF LAKE
            MILLS.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 WNW SPRING GREEN      43.21N 90.18W
08/19/2007  M5.54 INCH       SAUK               WI   ASOS

            MEASURED 5.54 INCHES AT THE LONE ROCK ASOS.

0824 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LAKE MILLS              43.07N 88.91W
08/19/2007  M5.59 INCH       JEFFERSON          WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MEASURED 5.59 INCHES AT LAKE MILLS WASTEWATER TREATMENT
            PLANT.

&&

WOOD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
842 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MUKWONAGO               42.87N 88.33W
08/19/2007  M6.98 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            MEASURED 6.98 INCHES AT THE MUKWONAGO RIVER GAGE.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NW MILTON             42.83N 89.02W
08/19/2007  M6.41 INCH       ROCK               WI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            MEASURED 6.41 INCHES AT THE NEWVILLE-5NE RIVER GAGE ON
            LAKE KOSHKONONG.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MILFORD                 43.10N 88.85W
08/19/2007  M5.41 INCH       JEFFERSON          WI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            MEASURED 5.41 INCHES AT THE MILFORD RIVER GAGE.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ROCK SPRINGS            43.48N 89.92W
08/19/2007  M5.32 INCH       SAUK               WI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            MEASURED 5.32 INCHES AT THE ROCK SPRINGS RIVER GAGE.

&&

WOOD