Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

000 
WWUS52 KMHX 220230
SVSMHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1030 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

NCC049-220240-
/O.CAN.KMHX.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-070822T0245Z/
CRAVEN NC-
1030 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CRAVEN COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3484 7679 3483 7709 3484 7711 3497 7711
      3507 7707 3502 7696 3498 7692 3498 7690
      3496 7688 3492 7678
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 279DEG 23KT 3502 7673 3484 7680

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
401 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA WEDNESDAY STALLING NEAR WILMINGTON. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY....MOVING BACK TO
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. WHILE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
BE LIMITED...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST VERY TRICKY NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REMNANTS OF ERIN HAVE
PRODUCED A MCV OVER EASTERN KY. THIS FEATURE WILL ROTATE SE AROUND
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE A LOW ALONG THE FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA. THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...BRING THE
REMNANTS OF THE STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION TO THE WEST ACROSS EASTERN
NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WHILE THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY...THERE
IS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO WARRANT A 30% CHANCE FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT. THIS
IS LINE WITH THE NAM. SPC HAS PLACED THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN
NC IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THIS EVENING. WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT. ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE RESULTING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED. THERE WAS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE
MET/MAV MOS SO I TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MET BUT NOT ALL THE
WAY. WEDNESDAY THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON THURSDAY THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A WEAK IMPULSE/DEFORMATION
ZONE ACROSS EASTERN NC WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL JUST INTRODUCE A
20% CHANCE BECAUSE MY CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE IS BELOW NORMAL
RIGHT NOW. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS CAN UPDATE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
THE ONSHORE FLOW AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WILL HOLD
DOWN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AND WILL DROP FORECAST HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S. ON FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF
THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER AIR RETURNING TO EASTERN
NC. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLUTION WILL OPT TOWARD
PERSISTENCE AND THE KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY WITH A FRONT EXPECTED IN THE
AREA MON OR TUE. WILL KEEP A SILENT 20 POP IN THE FORECAST UNTIL
TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN POSSIBLE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 02-07Z AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. LCL MVFR/OCNL IFR IN AND AROUND CONVECTION
OTHERWISE VFR TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS WED
MORNING WITH FROPA BETWEEN 15-17Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT N/NE
BEHIND THE FRONT THEN BECOME EASTERLY BY EARLY WED EVENING.

LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE TERMINALS EARLY THU WILL RESULT IN
POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KMHX 88-D IS DOWN FOR MAINTAINENECE UNTIL A PART ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS MAINLY 3 TO 5 FT. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS
OVER SE VIRGINIA WITH A SFC TROUGH NOTED OVER INLAND AREAS. S/W
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH MODELS INDICATING A WAVE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE NORTH.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS TO INCREASE
SFC WINDS TO SOLID 20 KT OVER CENTRAL WATERS WHERE A SCA IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10Z WED. SEAS SHOULD BUILD SOME TONIGHT AS THE WINDS
INCREASE WITH 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA BEGINNING
EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SUBSIDING TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WINDS VEER TO THE WEST. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
WATERS ON WED WITH N/NE WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT
REMAINING BELOW 15 KT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 4 FT BY EVENING.
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ON THU BECOMING SE BY FRI. WAVEWATCH CONTINUING
TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 6 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS BY THU WITH
SOME WAVE ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE SE. WILL CONTINUE TO GO ABOUT A
FOOT BELOW GUIDANCE LATE IN THE WEEK AS CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO WARRANT CURRENT WAVEWATCH NUMBERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JW
MARINE...JW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
223 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-220630-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
223 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NCZ095-098-103-104-220630-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
223 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
926 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E WILLIAMSTON         35.85N 77.02W
08/21/2007                   MARTIN             NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON WILDCAT RD

&&

JS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
928 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0849 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE WILLIAMSTON        35.82N 77.02W
08/21/2007                   MARTIN             NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ACROSS FIVE CENT RD

&&

JS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
937 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VANCEBORO               35.30N 77.16W
08/21/2007                   CRAVEN             NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF MILL AVE AND
            ARNOLD ST

&&

JS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
944 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE PANTEGO            35.63N 76.61W
08/21/2007                   BEAUFORT           NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS INTERSECTION OF HWY 99 AND INDIAN
            RUN RD

&&

JS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
947 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0909 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W PANTEGO             35.59N 76.73W
08/21/2007                   BEAUFORT           NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS OLD RT-97

&&

JS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
950 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PLYMOUTH                35.86N 76.75W
08/21/2007                   WASHINGTON         NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS GENERAL PETTIGREW DR

&&

JS