Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

000 
WWUS52 KMHX 272050
SVSMHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
449 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

NCC061-272100-
/O.CON.KMHX.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-070727T2100Z/
DUPLIN NC-
449 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR DUPLIN COUNTY...

AT 445 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR KENANSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  KENANSVILLE BY 455 PM EDT...
  
PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-800-889-6889...WHEN YOU CAN
DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3510 7821 3492 7822 3489 7779 3512 7778

$$

24

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
343 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INCREASE OUR
CHANCES FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING NEXT WEEK AND MOVE
OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK AGAIN
INCREASING OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING BETWEEN KINSTON AND RALEIGH THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE STORMS ARE PRIMARILY
DIURNAL IN NATURE SO THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. I
HAVE A 30 POP FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA FOR TONIGHT AND
20 EAST. DEWPOINTS ARE NOW SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AND
LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS WELL...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT BEGIN INCHING IT WAY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CWA. GFS APPEARS
TO BE MUCH WETTER THAN THAN NAM. RATHER THAN COMPLETELY BUYING
INTO GFS AT THIS POINT, I PREFER TO USE 40 POP VICE A HIGH CHANCE
OR LIKELY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT THERE MAY BE
TIMING ERRORS IN THE GFS. LATER SHIFT CAN INCREASE POPS IF
NECESSARY. TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL....HIGHS AROUND 90...LOWS
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND MAY BE
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. EARLY IN THE WEEK WE WILL SEEM CLIMO TYPE
POPS GENERALLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE A
GOOD BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IF THE FRON IS ABLE TO MAKE IT
OFF SHORE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARMFRONT
SPREADING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMER AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SCT-BKN CU CLDS.
CONVECTION FIRING WEST OF TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BY THEY WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. PGV AND ISO ARE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECTED BY
THE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT TERMINAL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY IN THEM.
THE STRONGER STORMS ARE PRODUCING SMALL (DIME-PENNY SIZE HAIL).
SOMRE LIGHT FOG AGAIN PROBABLE TOMORROW AROUND SR BUT ANY MVFR/IFR
CONDS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

SAT AND SUN WEATHER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS...SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY LOOK TO HAVE MORE SHWRS/TSTS AROUND AS COLD FRONT CLOSES IN
ON AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE FINALLY SHIFTED TO S-SELY ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT...STRONGEST UP TO 13 KT FAR N
AND FAR S PORTIONS. LOCAL ARW MODEL HANDLING THE NEAR TERM WINDS
BEST AND FOLLOWED CLOSELY THROUGH SAT WHICH KEEPS WINDS S-SW. USED A
BLEND OF NAM AND GFS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH S-SW WINDS UP
TO 15 KT CONTINUING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION.
SEAS WILL REMAIN MAINLY 2-3 FT THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH ELY SWELLS
SLOWLY SUBSIDING.

MODELS DIVERGE WITH HANDLING OF THE FRONT MON THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 12Z GFS THE MOST AGRESSIVE TAKING THE FRONT
OFFSHORE AND DEVELOPING A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS ALONG IT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE GFS SOLUTION AND FOR THE TIME
BEING WILL FOLLOW HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY KEEPING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
CWA EXCEPT EXTENDING OFFSHORE IN THE FAR NRN WATERS. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES THE WAVE GRIDS IN THE EXTENDED KEEPING SEAS AOB 5 FT. IF THE
PRESENT GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES...SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH SEAS AND N-NE WINDS
BRINGING SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...SK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
304 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

NCZ103-280715-
OUTER BANKS DARE-
304 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES NORTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-104-280715-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS HYDE-
304 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.