Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
251 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AS HEATING CONTINUES UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS FOR TONIGHT AND KEPT LIKELY ACROSS THE
BOARD AS THE COLD MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
ONTO THE COASTAL PLAIN 09-12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD IN A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FCST. FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE W
FRI NIGHT AND SAT THEN LIFT N OR DISSIPATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ATMS LOOKS TO REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH SCT CONVECTION
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS LOOKS SEASONAL WITH HIGHS AROUND
90 OR SO INLAND WITH CST MID 80S. WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH HIGH
DEWPTS...THIS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE AREA TERMINALS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED CEILINGS AROUND 4KFT THIS
EVENING WILL BECOME BKN AROUND 4KFT LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUD
DECK TO SCATTER OUT LATE THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL VEER TO WEST THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NIGHTTIME/EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL FROM MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WNDS OVR THE CSTL WTRS AT 15 TO 20 KTS ARE CONTINUING THIS AFTN.
FRNT OVR ERN TN WL PUSH EWRD THRU THE RMNDR OF THE AFTN AND THIS
EVE. GRAD WL TITEN AHD OF THIS FTR...BRING WND OVR THE WTRS TO SCA
CONDS LTR THIS AFTN. MDLS BRINGG FRNT ACRSS WTRS ARND SR THU WI WND
TURNG TO NW BHND FRNT AND GRAD LOOSENING FOR A DCRS IN WND SPD. A WK
RDG WL TRY TO BLD OVR THE AREA FRM THE W THU WI WND BCMG WLY AND
LGT. RDG GET SUPPRSD WI NXT APPCHG SYS. WND TO BCM MR ORGANIZED FRM
THE SW FRI AM AS SYS GETS CLOSER TO AREA. WL MOST LIKELY RCH SCA
CONDS AGAIN FRI NGT AS FRNT MVS ACROSS THE WTRS SAT AM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...HSA
MARINE...CGG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
316 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

NCZ029-044-045-079-080-090>093-098-120730-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-GREENE-BEAUFORT-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-
ONSLOW-
316 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAT INDICIES NEAR 105 DEGREES ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NCZ046-047-081-094-095-103-104-120730-
TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-MAINLAND HYDE-PAMLICO-CARTERET-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
316 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
545 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

NCZ090>093-098-112245-
DUPLIN-JONES-LENOIR-CRAVEN-ONSLOW-
545 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ONSLOW...CRAVEN...LENOIR...JONES
AND DUPLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 545 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 46 MILES WEST OF
NEW BERN TO 59 MILES WEST OF NEW BERN...OR FROM 10 MILES EAST OF
MOUNT OLIVE TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF WARSAW...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR NEW BERN AT 645 PM EDT..

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN ON AREA
ROADWAYS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE
AMOUNT OF DEADLY LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

20

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
620 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

NCZ044-080-091>093-112300-
JONES-LENOIR-PITT-BEAUFORT-CRAVEN-
620 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...PITT...LENOIR
AND JONES COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 620 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF AYDEN TO 37 MILES SOUTH OF AYDEN...OR FROM 6 MILES NORTH
OF KINSTON TO 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF HALF MOON...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR AYDEN AT 630 PM EDT. OTHER
LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE RIVER ROAD AND
WASHINGTON.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN ON AREA
ROADWAYS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE
AMOUNT OF DEADLY LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

20

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

NCZ093-094-112345-
PAMLICO-CRAVEN-
700 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CRAVEN AND PAMLICO COUNTIES UNTIL
745 PM EDT...

AT 700 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEW BERN...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
BRIDGETON...AND...JAMES CITY AT 705 PM EDT...ALLIANCE AT 725 PM
EDT...STONEWALL...AND...BAYBORO AT 730 PM EDT...VANDEMERE...AND...
MESIC AT 740 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS
INCLUDE RIVER BEND AND TRENT WOODS.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN ON
AREA ROADWAYS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING AN
EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

20