Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
308 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING RIDGE TO
BUILD OVER EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEK. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW RESULTING IN HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC LIS -2 TO -5 ACROSS THE CENTRAL POTION OF NC (EAST-WEST)
WHICH IS WHERE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN POPPING THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIR IS FARTHER WEST IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF NC. ARW AND GFS HAVE THE SAME BASIC SHORT TERM SOLUTION
WITH STORMS FIRING THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NC AND
MOVING EAST TO THE COAST TONIGHT. I HAVE A 20-30 POP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW TSTMS OFF THE COAST BY
TOMORROW MORNING SO I HAVE NO POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE WITH RECENT TREND TO BE BELOW MOS A
FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY AND WARM/HOT WEATHER EXPECTED SUN AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRES
RIDGE HOLDS ONTO STATE. SW FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS TO 85 TO 90 ON
SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER 90S ON MONDAY. HUMNDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE
IN SW FLOW. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS. SEABREEZE COULD BE A
FACTOR BUT I WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC RIDGE WILL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SW FLOW AND WARM
AND HUMID WEATHER. MID TO LATE WEEK A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND STALL. THIS SHOULD HELP IN LOWERING DAYTIME HIGHS
BACK TO AROUND 90. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTN TSTMS
WED-SAT WITH THE WEAK TROF OVER THE AREA HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CU ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WILL LEAD TO SOME SCT SHRA WITH ISOL TSRA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCT TSRA COMING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A TROF PUSHES E.
COULD GET SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND TSRA OR HEAVY SHRA ...BUT
OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS. IF ANY OF THE AIRPORTS RECEIVE
RAINFALL COULD HAVE SOME MVFR PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOP. FOR NOW
AM LEAVING IT OUT OF FCST SINCE RAIN HAS YET TO APPROACH AIRPORTS.
SOME CU COULD DEVELOP ON SUN...BUT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH CLOUDS AND NO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH PRES IN
CONTROL.

FOR THE REST OF THE FCST WILL SEE A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOP WITH SW
WINDS AND OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON TSRA. PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY IS THE TRANSITION PERIOD AS THE LOW THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE W ATLANTIC FINALLY IS DRIVEN OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IN
ITS WAKE WILL BUILD A STRONG RIDGE WHICH WILL THE WX BENIGN OUTSIDE
OF PERIODS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE WILL
KEEP A PREDOMINANT SW FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS 2
TO 4 FT. THE SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY SO COULD SEE
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF S FACING BEACHES
IN THE AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE LOOKS LIKE A COPY
AND PAST FCST FROM MON ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENT RISK HIGH N OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND MODERATE S AS LONG
PERIOD 16 SEC E SWELL IMPACTS THE BEACHES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...SJ
MARINE...SJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1155 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

NCZ045>047-080-081-092>094-171600-
WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-JONES-CRAVEN-
PAMLICO-
1155 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ095-103-104-171600-
CARTERET-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
1155 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG EAST FACING
BEACHES FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE BEACHES
OF FRISCO, RODANTHE, NAGS HEAD, AND KITTY HAWK.

SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST INCLUDING EMERALD ISLE...INDIAN
BEACH...SALTER PATH...PINE KNOLL SHORES...AND ATLANTIC BEACH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ029-044-079-090-091-171600-
MARTIN-PITT-GREENE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-
1155 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 17.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ098-171600-
ONSLOW-
1155 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG AREAS
BEACHES FROM HAMMOCKS BEACH STATE PARK TO SURF CITY INCLUDING
NORTH TOPSAIL BEACH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
631 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

NCZ044-079-162330-
GREENE-PITT-
631 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PITT AND GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL
730 PM EDT...

AT 631 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 6 MILES SOUTH OF
FARMVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NEAR HOOKERTON AT 640 PM EDT...AYDEN AT 650 PM EDT...GRIFTON AT
700 PM EDT..

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

5

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
712 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             2 E HOOKERTON           35.42N 77.55W
06/16/2007  E1.75 INCH       GREENE             NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

RF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
733 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             5 W GRIFTON             35.37N 77.52W
06/16/2007  E1.75 INCH       LENOIR             NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

RF

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
751 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 PM     HAIL             5 N NEW BERN            35.19N 77.08W
06/16/2007  E1.00 INCH       CRAVEN             NC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BETWEEN NEW BERN AND VANCEBORO

&&

RF