Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
302 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY AN INCREASE IN NE FLOW AND DROP IN
THICKNESSES WILL COOL TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH A BIT OF A REBOUND
ON FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY THE TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOLER AIR WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE AND A STRONG RIDGE WILL REPLACE IT...RETURNING
TEMPS INTO THE 90S AND HIGH HUMIDITIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORT WAVE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO MOVE
S...ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER
WITH DIMINISHED HEATING TONIGHT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MUCH LESS
THAN THIS EVENING. TEMPS LOOKING TO BE SIMILAR IF NOT A DEG OR TWO
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHTS LOWS...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE UPPER LVL
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WED AND THE FLOW ALOFT NW.
THIS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR TO WORK WITH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MORE CONVECTION AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKEWED OMEGA PATTERN OVER THE U.S. WILL KEEP AN AREA OF LOW PRES
OFF THE NE COAST WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE SW TOWARDS LATE
WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
A RAPID DROP IN THICKNESSES FOR THU. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER FEATURE...WHICH COULD
INHIBIT MANY SHOWERS FROM FORMING THU. BY FRI HIGH PRES WILL
BECOME DOMINANT AND ALLOW FOR NICE DAYTIME HEATING WHICH COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL SAT AND
SLIDE OFFSHORE SUN...WHICH WILL RETURN SW FLOW. FOR SUN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE HUMIDITY WILL RETURN AND TEMPS BOUNCE TO ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. IF THESE SCATTERED STORMS WERE TO MOVE OVER AN AIRPORT
THEY COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. ANY RAINFALL RECEIVED COULD ALSO AID IN POSSIBLE FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT AFTER DARK AND
WINDS GO LIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE 4-5SM IN TAFS...BUT COULD SEE PERIODS
OF MUCH LOWER DEPENDING ON RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...NE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NRN WTRS LATE
TONIGHT AS GRDNT TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW WELL OFFSHORE TO THE NE AND
HIGH PRES TO THE N. EXPECT NE WINDS TO THEN AVG 15 TO 20 KTS WED
INTO THU ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL WTRS. NICE FETCH OF NE WINDS TO
THE N WILL BUILD SEAS AND EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DVLP N OF HAT
LATER WED AFTN AND N OF OCRACOKE WED NIGHT. S OF OCRACOKE APPEARS
SEAS WILL REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 6 FT SO NO HEADLINES NEEDED. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN FRI THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER
AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. SEAS SHLD DROP BELOW 6 FT NRN WTRS FRI
THEN NO HEADLINES REMAINDER OF FCST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SJ
NEAR TERM...SJ
SHORT TERM...SJ
LONG TERM...SJ
AVIATION...SJ
MARINE...RF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
922 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-131330-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
922 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.