Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

June 9, 2007Carteret County, North Carolina

NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 9, 2007, 4:12 PM EDT for Carteret County, North Carolina. It was in force for 33 min. 4 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jun 9, 2007, 4:12 PM EDT (20:12 UTC)
Expired: Jun 9, 2007, 4:45 PM EDT
In force: 33 min
Issued by: NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Carteret County, NC

The radar

The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 16 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jun 9, 4:30 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	Harkers Island, NC	THREE CONCRETE LIGHT POLES ALONG HARKERS ISLAND BRIDGE BLOWN DOWN. POWER IS OUT TO THE ISLAND AT PRESENT.
Jun 9, 4:30 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	Otway, NC	ROOF TAKEN OFF MOBILE HOME
Jun 9, 4:30 PM EDT	TSTM WND GST 92	Harkers Island, NC	REPORTED BY DRAWBRIDGE OPERATOR.
Jun 9, 4:50 PM EDT	HAIL 0.88	Smyrna, NC	VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND NICKEL-DIME SIZE HAIL

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 4 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 4 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 16 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1624 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -86 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1001 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 12 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 46 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS52 KMHX 092013
SVRMHX
NCC031-092045-
/O.NEW.KMHX.SV.W.0019.070609T2012Z-070609T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
412 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CARTERET COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MOREHEAD CITY...BEAUFORT...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 409 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.  THIS
  STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MOREHEAD CITY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
  MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BEAUFORT BY 425 PM EDT...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK 
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-800-889-6889...WHEN YOU CAN
DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3484 7683 3470 7690 3457 7656 3476 7644
      3484 7666

$$

20

1 follow-up statement

000 
WWUS52 KMHX 092028
SVSMHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
428 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2007

NCC031-092045-
/O.CON.KMHX.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-070609T2045Z/
CARTERET NC-
428 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR CARTERET COUNTY...

AT 426 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BEAUFORT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL CARTERET COUNTY AT 440 PM EDT

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK 
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-800-889-6889...WHEN YOU CAN
DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3478 7680 3470 7690 3459 7653 3476 7644
      3484 7659

$$

20

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 9, 12:57 PM EDT, 3 hours 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 9, 12:57 PM EDT, 3 hours 15 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1257 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...STALL ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE TEMPS ALONG SRN BEACHES. NORTHERLY FLOW HAS
KEPT SEA BREEZE AT BAY AND ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 AT
MRH...MHX AND ONSLOW BEACH. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP NEXT FEW HOURS
AND STILL EXPECT SCT CONVECTION MOST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SE
VIRGINIA/NE NORTH CAROLINA VERY POORLY...ESPECIALLY THE NAM. THUS
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE LOWER THAN
NORMAL. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL AS OUTFLOWS FROM CURRENT CONVECTION ALONG WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE. SPC HAS PLACED
THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA (MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 17) IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION TODAY WITH CAPES IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG...LIS IN EXCESS OF -5C...PW AROUND 2...LOWER FREEZING
LEVELS (14K) AND FAIRLY LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS DUE TO MIXING.
THUS ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT. ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK AND SO WILL SHEAR. THUS THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION AND WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT MAINLY PULSE EVENTS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
THREAT...WE HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TODAY DUE TO
THE HIGH PW AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY JUMP TO THE SEA
BREEZE AND STALL WITH SOME TRAINING OF CELLS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST.

THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
NOCTURNAL MCS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE NAM INITIALIZED POORLY THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION THE NAM AND GFS MODELS ARE FORECASTING STRONG
UPPER CONFLUENCE OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THEREFORE I WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE
NORMAL DIURNAL CYCLE WITH POPS TAILING OFF AROUND 3Z AND CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE COAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MON WILL PRODUCE A NW
FLOW AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE SE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND COULD ACT AS TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT POPS SUNDAY TO THE CRYSTAL COAST-ILM
SEA BREEZES AND KEEP MON DRY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 90S INLAND WITH
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100. THEN TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN WX FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS FEATURE WILL DRY OUT THE AIRMASS
ALLOWING TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO LOWER FROM CURRENT CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL INHIBIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION SOME...BUT THE MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO SUGGEST AN UPPER LVL VORT MAX SLIDING OVER THE REGION
LATE MON INTO TUE. DESPITE DRIER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS THIS
FEATURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW STRAY SHOWERS. THE HIGH
WILL SE AND OFFSHORE BY MID WEEK AND WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF WARM
MOIST AIR. THIS WILL TRIGGER TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
ALLOW TEMPS TO SLOWLY WARM TO OR ABOVE NORMAL BY END OF THE WEEK.*
ADD DISCUSSION HERE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NW WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
SW-W WINDS TO THE SOUTH. WIND SPEEDS ARE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE.
SEAS AT DIAMOND BUOY HAVE SUBSIDED TO 4 FT. CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH WINDS REMAINING 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4
FT...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STRONG TSTMS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

JBM/RAP

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 9, 3:49 AM EDT, 12 hours 23 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
349 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2007

AMZ135-NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-100800-
PAMLICO SOUND-MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-
BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-
ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
349 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

|THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS UP TO 2 INCHES IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST LATE
TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 9, 3:27 PM EDT, 45 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
327 PM EDT SAT JUN 09 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 PM     HAIL             BOGUE                   34.71N 77.03W
06/09/2007  E0.75 INCH       CARTERET           NC   PUBLIC

0319 PM     HAIL             NEWPORT                 34.79N 76.86W
06/09/2007  E0.75 INCH       CARTERET           NC   PUBLIC

&&

RAP

Local storm report, Jun 9, 3:44 PM EDT, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
344 PM EDT SAT JUN 09 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             INDIAN BEACH            34.69N 76.89W
06/09/2007  E1.00 INCH       CARTERET           NC   PUBLIC

&&

RAP

Local storm report, Jun 9, 3:50 PM EDT, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
350 PM EDT SAT JUN 09 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 PM     HAIL             SALTER PATH             34.69N 76.89W
06/09/2007  E0.75 INCH       CARTERET           NC   PUBLIC

&&

RAP

Local storm report, Jun 9, 4:03 PM EDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
403 PM EDT SAT JUN 09 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     HAIL             MOREHEAD CITY           34.72N 76.73W
06/09/2007  E0.88 INCH       CARTERET           NC   PUBLIC

            NICKEL-DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT CHEVY DEALERSHIP

&&

RAP

Local storm report, Jun 9, 4:07 PM EDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
407 PM EDT SAT JUN 09 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     HAIL             MOREHEAD CITY           34.72N 76.73W
06/09/2007  E0.75 INCH       CARTERET           NC   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

RAP

The office that day

Everything else NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 9, 1:21 AM EDT	Marine Weather Statement	MHX		54 min
Jun 9, 1:54 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	MHX		51 min
Jun 9, 2:36 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	MHX		24 min
Jun 9, 3:15 AM EDT	Marine Weather Statement	MHX		45 min
Jun 9, 3:33 AM EDT	Marine Weather Statement	MHX		42 min
Jun 9, 3:51 AM EDT	Marine Weather Statement	MHX		39 min
Jun 9, 4:34 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	MHX		41 min
Jun 9, 4:44 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	MHX		46 min
Jun 9, 5:43 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	MHX		47 min
Jun 9, 2:19 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	MHX		56 min
Jun 9, 3:09 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MHX	Carteret	36 min
Jun 9, 3:12 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	MHX		63 min
Jun 9, 3:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MHX	Onslow	16 min
Jun 9, 3:44 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MHX	Carteret	31 min
Jun 9, 4:25 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	MHX		50 min
Jun 9, 4:39 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MHX	Craven	36 min
Jun 9, 4:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MHX	Carteret	60 min
Jun 9, 5:17 PM EDT	Marine Weather Statement	MHX		28 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.